768
FXUS64 KSHV 050054
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
754 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- ABOVE NORMAL SUMMER HEAT RETURNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK (UPPER 90S LIKELY). CHANCES FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD AS A RESULT.
- DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD AND SHIFT NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS THE WEEKEND BEGINS. THIS RIDGE AXIS (AND
ITS EVOLUTION) MOSTLY TO OUR NORTH WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY
INFLUENCE ON WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK
INTO MID-SEPTEMBER. ZONAL FLOW UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO STEER DISTURBANCES WESTWARD, AND COMBINED WITH LOWER
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS/WEAKER ATMOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE, CONVECTIVE
ROUNDS WILL DEVELOP INHERITING THIS WESTWARD PROPAGATION. WITH DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT HAZARD PRODUCT ISSUANCE ALSO REMAINS ELEVATED
(ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR INTO SOUTH
ARKANSAS. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WINDOW OF SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY FOR OUR GREATEST CHANCES (25 TO 50 PERCENT) OF
TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WHERE AIR REMAINS MORE SUBSIDENT. LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE OF THE SAME AS SOMEWHAT WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT FUNNELS MORE PERTURBATIONS (INSTIGATING CONVECTION) IN OUR
DIRECTION. THAT SAID, THE CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL MOST
LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR UNDER LESS INHIBITION FROM
RIDGING TO THE NORTH. RESULTING WPC QPF DAY 1-7 VALUES REFLECT
THAT DISTRIBUTION WITH 0.01 TO 0.25 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY
NORTH OF I-20 AND 0.25-0.75 INCH TOTALS LIKELY TO THE SOUTH.
/16/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 738 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
FOR THE 05/00Z TAF PERIOD, ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WANE THIS EVENING AS VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK, SOME PATCHY
FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOME OF OUR TERMINALS
WITH THE MOST LIKELY SITES AFFECTED BEING KELD, KMLU, AND KLFK.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT AN EXPANDING CU FIELD ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND SLIGHTLY
BETTER STORM COVERAGE ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE AS COMPARED TO TODAY'S
ACTIVITY. THUS, HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL SITES LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD WITH WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD EXCEPT WITH HIGHER GUSTS INVOF CONVECTION.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 76 95 76 / 20 10 40 10
MLU 96 75 96 75 / 20 10 20 10
DEQ 97 72 100 72 / 10 0 10 0
TXK 96 75 98 75 / 10 0 10 0
ELD 98 73 99 73 / 10 10 10 0
TYR 93 74 95 75 / 10 0 30 10
GGG 96 74 97 73 / 10 10 40 10
LFK 95 73 93 73 / 20 10 70 10
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...19
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