551
FXUS64 KSHV 052006
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
306 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF
TEXAS, ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TODAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20.
- HEAT LOOKS TO BUILD THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND AND SHOWS NO
SIGN OF SLOWING DOWN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY: I HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS, ALL OF OUR ARKANSAS
COUNTIES AND THEN MCCURTAIN COUNTY. THIS WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB TO
AROUND 106 TO 108 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ADVISORY AREAS.
SOME MIGHT BE WONDERING WHY I DIDN'T ELECT TO ISSUE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS POINT, AND THE REASON FOR THAT IS THERE ARE SOME
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. DECENT ENOUGH CHANCES THAT WPC HAS PAINTED A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR TODAY. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED, SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
HEAVY RAIN AND LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. TODAY WILL BE THE
LAST GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
WHILE WE WILL STILL HAVE SOME LOW CHANCES EACH DAY, THEY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION AND DIURNALLY
DRIVE CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE RELENTLESS
HEAT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN SHOWS NO
SIGN OF MAJOR CHANGES OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES AT DANGEROUS LEVELS
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME INDICATION THAT THESE WARM
SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. GRANTED, ANYTHING PAST 3-4 DAYS IS GREATLY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE, BUT THAT IS CURRENTLY WHAT THE MODELS ARE SHOWING. SO FOR
THOSE READY TO GET HALLOWEEN DECOR OUT, YOU ARE EITHER GOING TO
HAVE TO DO IT IN THE HEAT, OR WAIT TILL MUCH LATER IN THE MONTH
WHEN THINGS COOL OFF, AS FOR ME AND MY HOUSE, WE WILL CHOOSE THE
HEAT OPTION. /33/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
FOR THE 05/18Z TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES CURRENTLY.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AND COULD LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS. AS OF NOW, THE MAIN
LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE AT OUR EAST TEXAS SITES, BUT CONVECTION AT
OUR REMAINING SITES CAN'T BE RULED OUT TODAY. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. SOME ADDITIONAL REDUCE FLIGHT
CATEGORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR DAYBREAK SUNDAY,
AS LOW CIGS ARE FORECASTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH REPORTS OF
ANY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 WOULD BE
APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 75 97 77 / 50 10 10 10
MLU 96 75 99 76 / 30 10 10 10
DEQ 100 72 101 72 / 20 0 10 0
TXK 98 75 99 76 / 20 10 10 10
ELD 98 73 101 74 / 20 10 10 10
TYR 95 74 97 76 / 50 10 10 0
GGG 97 73 98 75 / 60 10 10 0
LFK 92 72 91 74 / 80 10 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
012>014-019-021-022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...20
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