236
FXUS64 KSHV 052146 RRA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
446 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
- HEAT ADVISORY ISSUANCE WILL CONTINUE FURTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY
AS CHANCES OF STORMS ARE LESS LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20.
- ABOVE NORMAL SUMMER HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (UPPER 90S/LOWER 100S LIKELY).
- DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST NOW THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
RIDGING HAS REDEVELOPED AS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS TO OUR NORTH, AND CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN THE FLOW
UNDERNEATH ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY (ALSO AS ANTICIPATED). HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A GRADUAL TAPERING OFF OF REMAINING
CONVECTIVE STRENGTH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTER SUNSET.
ZONAL FLOW UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STEER
DISTURBANCES WESTWARD, AND COMBINED WITH LOWER GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHTS/WEAKER ATMOSPHERIC SUBSIDENCE, CONVECTIVE ROUNDS WILL
DEVELOP INHERITING THIS WESTWARD PROPAGATION THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. VARIATIONS IN THE INTENSITY OF THE WAVES OF
VORTICITY ADVECTED WILL DRIVE THE INTENSITY OF CONVECTION FOR EACH
DAY. WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 70S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT HAZARD PRODUCT ISSUANCE ALSO
REMAINS ELEVATED (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR
INTO SOUTH ARKANSAS).
A NEW HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FURTHER SOUTH AS A RESULT WITH
REDUCED VORTICITY ADVECTION BEHIND TODAY'S SHORTWAVE. THIS
SLIGHTLY DRIER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
REDUCED OR DISPLACED VORTICITY ADVECTION. MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A GRADUAL COOLDOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF VORTICITY ARRIVES FROM A WESTWARDLY PROPAGATING WAVE TO
INDUCE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MORE OF THE SAME AS SOMEWHAT WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT FUNNELS MORE PERTURBATIONS (INSTIGATING CONVECTION) IN OUR
DIRECTION. THAT SAID, THE CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL STILL
FOLLOW A DIURNAL PATTERN WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN SOUTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR UNDER LESS INHIBITION FROM RIDGING TO THE NORTH.
RESULTING WPC QPF DAY 1-7 VALUES REFLECT THIS OVERALL DISTRIBUTION
WITH 0.01 TO 0.25 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS LIKELY NORTH OF I-20 AND
0.25-0.50 INCH TOTALS LIKELY TO THE SOUTH. /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
FOR THE 05/18Z TAF PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES CURRENTLY.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION AND COULD LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS. AS OF NOW, THE MAIN
LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE AT OUR EAST TEXAS SITES, BUT CONVECTION AT
OUR REMAINING SITES CAN'T BE RULED OUT TODAY. THIS CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. SOME ADDITIONAL REDUCE FLIGHT
CATEGORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR DAYBREAK SUNDAY,
AS LOW CIGS ARE FORECASTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH REPORTS OF
ANY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 WOULD BE
APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 75 97 77 99 / 20 10 10 10
MLU 75 99 76 100 / 10 10 10 0
DEQ 72 101 72 101 / 10 10 0 0
TXK 75 99 76 99 / 10 10 10 0
ELD 73 101 74 100 / 10 10 10 0
TYR 74 97 76 99 / 20 10 0 10
GGG 73 98 75 101 / 30 10 0 10
LFK 72 91 74 95 / 30 10 0 20
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
012>014-019-021-022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...20
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