914
FXUS64 KSHV 081842
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
142 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
- HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THE NEXT
WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
- MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH AND THE FAR SOUTH,
WHICH MAY HELP BRING A FEW DEGREES OF RELIEF.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
A RATHER BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TO THE CAROLINAS REMAINS FIRMLY CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SHOULD ONCE AGAIN HELP INITIATE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
MAY HELP TO PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN
THE HIGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, ANY STRONG, MORE ORGANIZED STORMS
COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT BEFORE THE STORMS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A WARM FRONT. SOME DRIER AIR SHOULD ALSO MOVE
INTO THE REGION, BUT COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE, THIS
WILL LIKELY KEEP RAIN CHANCES BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS. ON THE
FLIP SIDE, THE LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER HEAT INDEX
VALUES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IT WON'T BE ENOUGH TO KEEP US UNDER
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN MOST PLACES, BUT AT LEAST IT'S SOME
RELIEF.
AFTER WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THIS
WILL ALLOW AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY. UNFORTUNATELY,
ANY APPRECIABLY COOLER AIR WILL REMAIN FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, THE FRONT SHOULD BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS, AND EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY. POPS FOR FRIDAY
AND BEYOND WILL BE MORE UNCERTAIN. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. THERE MAY BE A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG THE GULF COAST, WHICH COULD HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT BETTER IN DEEP EAST TEXAS AND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
AT FIRST GLANCE, THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE VERY AGGRESSIVE
WITH PRECIP FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY, BUT DAY 1-7 QPF AMOUNTS FROM
THE NBM REMAIN QUITE LOW. THEREFORE, THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP, BUT THEY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN RELATIVELY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE, AND SIGNIFICANT
WETTING RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PROVIDE AT LEAST
SOME ADDITIONAL RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW TRIPLE
DIGITS, BUT STILL WELL INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S.
COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY, PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY
STILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
/NUTTALL/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
OUTSIDE OF VCTS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM 08/20Z-09/00Z ACROSS
AREA TERMINALS, VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD ENDING 09/18Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS UP TO 8 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
TO BECOME 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE TO AROUND 6 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
/09/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 98 76 97 76 / 20 0 0 0
MLU 99 75 97 75 / 20 0 0 0
DEQ 101 72 99 71 / 20 0 10 0
TXK 100 75 98 75 / 20 0 10 0
ELD 101 73 98 73 / 10 0 10 0
TYR 99 75 98 75 / 20 0 0 0
GGG 100 74 99 74 / 20 0 10 0
LFK 95 74 93 73 / 20 10 10 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ050-051-
059>061-070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...09
AVIATION...05
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