059
FNUS74 KSHV 210828
FWSSHV
SPOT FORECAST FOR SHELL ROCK WF...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
328 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0630 CDT ON SEPTEMBER 21.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (318) 631-3669 EXT. 241, IF YOU HAVE
QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EASE SOUTH INTO SE OKLAHOMA
TODAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANY
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE ERRATIC WINDS AND HIGHER WIND
GUSTS AS WELL AS BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A POST-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH WINDS INITIALLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, THEN VEERING MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY BREEZY AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY IN WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH DECREASING RHS COULD SPELL ONE
MORE ROUND OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................40 PERCENT DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT LATE IN THE
MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE.........71 AT FORECAST START...MAX 94.
RH..................93 PERCENT AT FORECAST START...MIN 41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........WINDS SHIFTING NORTH AT 3 MPH AT FORECAST
START...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL AT FORECAST START...OTHERWISE 4900
FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH EARLY
IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
3 TO 5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING
TO THE NORTH 3 TO 9 MPH THEREAFTER.
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 2 METERS PER
SECOND EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHEAST 1 TO 2 METERS PER SECOND LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 2 TO 4
METERS PER SECOND THEREAFTER.
LVORI...............4.
DISPERSION INDEX....7 INCREASING TO 35.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........71 52 57 51 41 41 40 51 51 51 47 47
WEATHER COV.....CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............40 30 30 30 20 20 20 30 30 30 30 30
TEMP............71 70 72 74 79 83 88 90 92 93 92 91
RH..............90 93 87 84 72 63 52 47 44 41 43 45
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NE NE NE N N N N N N
20 FT WIND MPH..2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4
20 FT WIND GUST.4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.4 2.3 3.2 4.2 4.9 4.7 3.7 3.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NE NE NE NE N N N N N
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 5 5 3 3 5 6 6 6 8 9
TRANS WIND DIR..NW NW NW NE NE NE NE N N N N N
TRANS SPD (M/S).3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4
DISPERSION IDX..3 7 5 5 6 10 19 31 35 34 38 37
LVORI...........6 6 6 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................30 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MIN 68.
RH..................MAX 100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 8 TO 10 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.NORTH AROUND 4 METERS/SECOND.
LVORI...............5.
DISPERSION INDEX....33 DECREASING TO 5.
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........47 34 34 34 9 5 6 9 17 20 26 23
WEATHER COV.....CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW
TSTM COV........CHC
CWR.............30 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............88 84 80 77 76 75 73 72 72 71 70 70
RH..............50 59 67 76 82 84 87 90 90 93 97 97
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N N N N N N N N N
20 FT WIND MPH..2 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.8 7 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.NE N N N N N N N N N NE NE
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 8 8 8
TRANS WIND DIR..NE N N N N N N N N N NE NE
TRANS SPD (M/S).4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
DISPERSION IDX..33 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
LVORI...........1 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 7 9 9
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURE.........MAX 92.
RH..................MIN 41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 6 MPH LATE
IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 8 TO 10 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.NORTHEAST AROUND 4 METERS/SECOND.
LVORI...............5.
DISPERSION INDEX....7 INCREASING TO 19 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 37 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 48 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON INCREASING TO 60
INCREASING TO 73 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO 56 INCREASING TO 68 LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........28 31 25 27 31 27 25 29 26 31 36 27
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 10 10 10 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............69 68 70 73 79 83 87 89 90 92 90 90
RH..............97 100 97 87 72 63 53 48 44 41 42 41
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N NE NE NE NE N N N NE NE
20 FT WIND MPH..3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.9 3.1 4.0 4.8 6.1 6.6 4.8 5.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.N N NE NE NE NE NE N NE NE NE N
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 9 8 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 10
TRANS WIND DIR..N N NE NE NE NE NE N NE NE NE N
TRANS SPD (M/S).4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
DISPERSION IDX..4 10 9 14 23 32 41 48 60 73 56 68
LVORI...........9 8 8 4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
FORECASTER...HEMINGWAY
REQUESTED BY...K WILSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2622067.3/SHV
.DELDT 09/21/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JOHN.WILSON2@USDA.GOV
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