716
FXUS64 KSHV 271656
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1156 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR, INCREASING IN COVERAGE WEST
AND SOUTH MONDAY.
- AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK,
POSSIBLY AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY, WITH FLASH FLOODING INCREASINGLY
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TO MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY. ALOFT, NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL AHEAD OF A BUILDING RIDGE
THAT WILL DRIVE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 90S
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EAST
TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA ON MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER-RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX BRINGING THE DRIEST AND HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEAST, BRINGING
WITH IT INCREASED GULF MOISTURE.
FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD, MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS STILL HAVE FAILED TO COME
INTO AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF AN ADVERTISED HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT RESULTING FROM THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM
IN THE PACIFIC BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET. THE
GFS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH STALLING A LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS ARKLATEX WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO, A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COMPACT SOILS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3
INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS MAINLY EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE EUROPEAN MODEL,
UNFORTUNATELY STALLS THE CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS DURING
THIS SAME TIME FRAME. AS THESE TWO FORECAST MODELS COME INTO
AGREEMENT, THE MID TO LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRONE TO FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH RAINFALL RATES
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD WILL AVERAGE IN THE 80S. /05/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
THIN CIRRUS IS MOVING OUT CURRENTLY BUT WILL RETURN LATER IN THE
TAF PERIOD. SEEING SOME CEILINGS NEAR 10KFT NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF
THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING WITH SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLOUD COVER. DON'T THINK THIS WILL IMPACT
ANY TERMINALS HOWEVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOOKING DOWN SOUTH, SOME
MVFR VSBYS AND A BRIEF CEILING CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE LFK
TERMINAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND MAYBE A BRIEF MVFR VSBY AS
WELL AT THE MLU TERMINAL BUT OTHERWISE, LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF
VFR CONDITIONS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. LOOK FOR
INCREASING AND LOWERING AC CEILINGS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE LATER THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 70 93 70 / 0 0 20 0
MLU 93 66 92 65 / 0 0 20 0
DEQ 92 64 90 64 / 20 10 10 0
TXK 94 68 91 68 / 20 0 10 0
ELD 93 64 91 63 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 95 72 93 72 / 0 10 20 0
GGG 97 70 95 69 / 0 0 20 0
LFK 93 70 92 70 / 0 0 20 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page