498
FXUS64 KSHV 271743 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1243 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR, INCREASING IN COVERAGE WEST
AND SOUTH MONDAY.
- AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK,
POSSIBLY AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY, WITH FLASH FLOODING INCREASINGLY
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TO MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY. ALOFT, NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL AHEAD OF A BUILDING RIDGE
THAT WILL DRIVE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 90S
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EAST
TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA ON MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER-RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX BRINGING THE DRIEST AND HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEAST, BRINGING
WITH IT INCREASED GULF MOISTURE.
FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD, MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS STILL HAVE FAILED TO COME
INTO AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF AN ADVERTISED HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT RESULTING FROM THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM
IN THE PACIFIC BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET. THE
GFS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH STALLING A LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS ARKLATEX WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO, A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COMPACT SOILS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3
INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS MAINLY EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE EUROPEAN MODEL,
UNFORTUNATELY STALLS THE CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS DURING
THIS SAME TIME FRAME. AS THESE TWO FORECAST MODELS COME INTO
AGREEMENT, THE MID TO LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRONE TO FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH RAINFALL RATES
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD WILL AVERAGE IN THE 80S. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
27/18Z TAF PERIOD. A SCATTERED CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS LOWER
E TX/N LA/EXTREME SRN AR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL
AREAS OF AC CIGS OVER NE TX/SE OK/SW AR EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT SE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE CU
FIELD SHOULD MOSTLY DIMINISH AROUND 00Z MONDAY, ALTHOUGH SOME CU
MAY REDEVELOP THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF E TX/WRN
LA/EXTREME SW AR. AC CIGS OVER ERN OK/MUCH OF AR SHOULD ALSO SHIFT
SE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH
OF MONDAY MORNING BEFORE THINNING. SOME PATCHY FG MAY ALSO DEVELOP
BY OR JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX WHERE ANY
AC SHOULD BE THINNER, POSSIBLY AFFECTING LFK THROUGH MID-MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING. A SCATTERED STRATOCU FIELD SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
BY 15-16Z ACROSS E TX/WRN LA, BEFORE A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO GRADUALLY ERODE THE CU FIELD FROM E TO W BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY VRB WINDS AROUND 5KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME LT/VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 70 93 70 95 / 0 20 0 0
MLU 66 92 65 95 / 0 20 0 0
DEQ 64 90 64 93 / 10 10 0 0
TXK 68 91 68 94 / 0 10 0 0
ELD 64 91 63 95 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 72 93 72 94 / 10 20 0 0
GGG 70 95 69 96 / 0 20 0 0
LFK 70 92 70 91 / 0 20 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page