093
FXUS64 KSHV 272337
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
637 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR, INCREASING IN COVERAGE WEST
AND SOUTH MONDAY.
- AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 90S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
- MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK,
POSSIBLY AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY, WITH FLASH FLOODING INCREASINGLY
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION TO MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
MONDAY. ALOFT, NORTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL AHEAD OF A BUILDING RIDGE
THAT WILL DRIVE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 90S
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EAST
TEXAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA ON MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY, THE UPPER-RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX BRINGING THE DRIEST AND HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS NORTHEAST, BRINGING
WITH IT INCREASED GULF MOISTURE.
FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD, MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS STILL HAVE FAILED TO COME
INTO AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING OF AN ADVERTISED HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT RESULTING FROM THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM
IN THE PACIFIC BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE SOUTHERN STREAM JET. THE
GFS SEEMS TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH STALLING A LINE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS ARKLATEX WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH RAIN CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY. WITH THIS SCENARIO, A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WOULD BE
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE COMPACT SOILS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 3
INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS MAINLY EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THE EUROPEAN MODEL,
UNFORTUNATELY STALLS THE CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS DURING
THIS SAME TIME FRAME. AS THESE TWO FORECAST MODELS COME INTO
AGREEMENT, THE MID TO LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRONE TO FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS.
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES COULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH RAINFALL RATES
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LIGHT. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD WILL AVERAGE IN THE 80S. /05/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST
SITES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH SOME CU OR AC OVERNIGHT.
SEVERAL EAST TX SITES MAY HAVE CALM WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT,
WITH MOISTURE RETURN HELPING WORSEN CONDITIONS AT KLFK IN THE
HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE ON SUB VFR CIGS IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME FOR OTHER SITES. AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW, EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR WITH AN
INCOMING PUSH OF DRY AIR. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR PARTS OF EAST TX IN THE LAST HOURS OF THE PERIOD, BUT EXACT
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF KTYR ARE UNCERTAIN. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 70 93 69 94 / 0 10 0 0
MLU 66 92 65 94 / 0 10 0 0
DEQ 64 91 64 93 / 10 10 0 0
TXK 67 91 67 94 / 0 10 0 0
ELD 64 91 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 71 93 71 94 / 10 20 0 0
GGG 69 95 68 96 / 0 20 10 0
LFK 70 93 70 91 / 0 20 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...57
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