820
FXUS64 KSHV 280512
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1212 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ARKLATEX THIS MORNING, CONTINUING SOUTH INTO THE AFTERNOON.
- TUESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WHILE HIGHS CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 90S AND LOWS RETURN TO THE 70S.
- MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL CHANCES RETURN BY MID TO LATE WEEK,
POSSIBLY AS SOON AS WEDNESDAY FOR EAST TEXAS, WITH FLASH
FLOODING INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR THE
WESTERN ARKLATEX.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS AMPLIFIED ALONG AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM WEST
TEXAS NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. STEERING ALOFT
HAS CREATED A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WHICH HAS BEEN PUSHING SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THE ARKLATEX OUT OF OKLAHOMA. THESE
SHOWERS LOOK TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BUT WEAK IMPULSES RIDING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KICK UP ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
ARRIVING FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING INTO
THE MORNING, ADVANCING AND REBUILDING INTO EAST TEXAS INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTIONS MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
TO RESOLVE WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON CONVECTION, IF ANY AT ALL, AND IN
RUNS WHERE STORMS DO DEVELOP, THEY ARE LARGELY CONFINED TO TEXAS.
AMENDED POPS TO REFLECT THESE RECENT TRENDS.
AS WITH LAST NIGHT, LIGHT WINDS AND NARROWING DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE LUFKIN AND NACOGDOCHES AREAS, DIMINISHING SOON
AFTER DAYBREAK. UNDER THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE,
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S AREAWIDE. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 60S SOUTHWEST AT
LEAST ONCE MORE BEFORE FOLLOWING SUIT IN THE EMERGING WARMING
TREND. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD ADVANCE, WITH ITS
AXIS DIRECTLY OVER THE ARKLATEX BY LUNCHTIME TUESDAY, WHICH LOOKS
TO BE DRY AREAWIDE AND THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR AREA SITES,
AS HIGHS AIM FOR THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY LOSE DEFINITION AND GET
ABSORBED INTO THE PREVAILING SYNOPTIC FLOW AS A DEEPENING TROUGH
PLUNGES SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS AND PUSHES EAST OVER THE
FRONT RANGE. WITH THIS POWERFUL FORCING MECHANISM ALOFT AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW FUNNELING GULF MOISTURE INTO OUR FOUR STATE REGION, A
BROAD AREA OF RAINFALL LOOKS TO ARRIVE FROM THE WEST BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.
THE BIG QUESTION SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN AND CONTINUES TO
BE TIMING. THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE FAVORING A SLOWER SOLUTION, WITH
RAIN ARRIVING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ONLY OUR WESTERNMOST ZONES,
MAKING AN EASTWARD PUSH ACROSS THE ENTIRE ARKLATEX EARLY
THURSDAY. THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAINFALL HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH
FLOODING IS INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN ARKLATEX THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST RISK AREAS JUST TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
LATE WEEK RAINFALL WILL START TO MAKE A DENT IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WHILE OVERNIGHT
LOWS DROP BACK FROM THE 70S INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
/26/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
FOR THE 28/06Z TAF PERIOD...NARROW, BROKEN LINE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS
MAY IMPACT THE TXK AND ELD TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BUT
INTENSITY DOES NOT APPEAR SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY MVFR
WORDING OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, A MIX OF MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR AIRSPACE THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS AND INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS. WEAK FORCING ACROSS NE TX WILL SHOULD RESULT IN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION TODAY SO DID INCLUDE
VCTS AT THE TYR/GGG AND LFK TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
24HR TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS NE TX.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 93 69 94 72 / 10 0 0 0
MLU 92 65 94 69 / 10 0 0 0
DEQ 91 64 93 68 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 91 67 94 71 / 10 0 0 0
ELD 91 63 94 68 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 93 71 94 73 / 20 0 0 0
GGG 95 68 96 72 / 20 10 0 0
LFK 93 70 91 72 / 20 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...13
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