841
FXUS64 KSHV 292335
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
635 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
- FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY GIVEN DRY FUELS AND INCREASING WINDS.
- MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THEN BECOMES A CONCERN LATE
IN THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE BEFORE SOILS CAN ABSORB THE MOISTURE.
- A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL ACCOMPANY THE INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY, WHERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE THE
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
THIS AFTERNOON, THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FEATURE AN ELONGATED,
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM EAST TEXAS
THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. LOOSELY ORGANIZED
TROUGHING IS NOTED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS FEATURE AROUND THE FL
PANHANDLE, MEANWHILE UPSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE LIES A MUCH MORE
NOTEWORTHY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SW WITH THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO BEING INGESTED INTO THE BROADER SCALE
CYCLONIC FLOW ON ITS EASTERN FLANK. NEAR THE SURFACE, A WEAK AND
GENERALLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY STILL LINGERS ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO
EAST TEXAS, SOUTHERN LA AND ALONG THE GULF COAST. AN EXPANSIVE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXISTS TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHEAST,
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE US EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
TUESDAY, WITH FIRE WEATHER BEING THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. WHILE
CRITERIA IS NOT BEING MET FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES, WINDS
ACROSS EAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE PERIODICALLY GUSTY AND
WHILE THE CORRESPONDING MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 40
PERCENT, VERY DRY SOILS AND FUELS WILL MAKE FOR EASY FIRE STARTS
AND FAST FIRE SPREADS. LOWER MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA WILL ALSO MAKE FOR VERY EASY FIRE
STARTS AND RAPID FIRE SPREADS DESPITE LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO ROUND OFF IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON AS
RIDGING ALOFT PROVIDES LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE
KEEPS CONDITIONS TRANQUIL NEAR THE SURFACE.
THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE RATHER QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY, AT
LEAST JUST UPSTREAM OF THE CWA. DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE, AND
AVAILABLE HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS THE SLOWER
ADVANCEMENT OF RAIN CHANCES. AS THE DESERT SW TROUGH BEGINS TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD, IT WILL CONTAIN ABUNDANT TROPICAL-PACIFIC
MOISTURE WITH IT AND IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OR OK PANHANDLE. AS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THEN DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY, AN OVERALL SLOW PROGRESSION
OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY RAINFALL
CHANCES TO THE WEST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION. AS SUCH, THE WPC ERO
HAS TRENDED BACK, AS THE FIRST REAL APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR
MOISTURE REACHING THE AREA NOW LOOKS TO BE VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY.
ONE MORE HOT DAY WILL ENSUE, WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 90S
AND DEWPOINTS RISING BACK INTO THE 70S AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP UP
AND BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES. GIVEN THAT FUELS AND SOILS REMAIN
CRITICALLY DRY, AND THAT WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT
20-25 KTS IN MANY LOCATIONS, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AREAWIDE.
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
APPROACH SE OK AND PORTIONS OF NE TX EARLY THURSDAY. WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINNING TO DAMPEN, IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE
WILL DECREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MAKES
VERY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY (UNLESS A SHORTWAVE
CAN ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND INDUCE A SURFACE WAVE ALONG
THE FRONT). NEVERTHELESS, EAST TEXAS AND SE OK ARE LIKELY TO SEE
RAINFALL. INITIAL RUNOFF BEFORE SOIL ABSORPTION COULD POSE A
THREAT FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ALONG WITH URBAN
FLOODING WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTED BY WPC IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AREAS JUST AHEAD OF IT, WITH
DAMAGING WIND FROM WET MICROBURSTS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN GIVEN
THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE SHEAR. THE SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND MORE CLOUD COVER
WILL HELP KNOCK HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES, MOSTLY WEST
OF THE I-49 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY. AREAS EAST WILL SEE ANOTHER HOT
DAY.
PROVIDED THAT THE UPPER LOW GETS RAPIDLY ABSORBED INTO THE
STRONGER BELT OF WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE US
ON FRIDAY, AND WHAT'S LEFT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS A LOOSELY
ORGANIZED WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER TX, THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING EASTWARD PROGRESS
ON FRIDAY. RAINFALL CHANCES WILL STILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
IN TANDEM WITH DAYTIME HEATING ALONG THE FRONT AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS GENERAL TREND WILL CARRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT REDEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALL
POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY NORTHWARD MOVING GULF MOISTURE BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL TAKE A
NOTICEABLE TUMBLE, WITH SOME AREAS STRUGGLING TO REACH 80 DEGREES
BY SUNDAY AND LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 60S. SUFFICE IT TO SAY, AT
LEAST SOMEWHAT OF A QUICK TASTE OF FALL LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
POSSIBILITY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS.
KOVACIK
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. VFR
STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS AT KTYR/KLFK AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 15 KTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AT THE END OF THIS TAF
PACKAGE. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 72 95 74 93 / 0 0 0 20
MLU 69 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 10
DEQ 68 94 71 90 / 0 0 10 60
TXK 70 93 73 92 / 0 0 0 40
ELD 68 94 70 94 / 0 0 0 10
TYR 72 94 74 91 / 0 0 10 70
GGG 70 95 72 93 / 0 0 0 50
LFK 71 92 74 91 / 0 10 0 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...57
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