099
FXUS64 KSHV 300642
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
142 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS TODAY WITH INCREASING SE WINDS
AND LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES.
- A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING A LOW-END RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR W/NW ZONES BY THURSDAY, WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AREAWIDE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW BY THIS WEEKEND WITH
A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH AND USHER IN THE COOLEST
AIR SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON BY THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
ONE MORE DAY TO GO WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 90S IS EXPECTED
TODAY AS UPPER RIDGING DEPARTS TO THE EAST, SIGNALING A COMING
PATTERN SHIFT FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING AREAWIDE. IN THE MEANTIME, TODAY'S WEATHER
CONCERN CENTERS ON THE ONGOING FIRE DANGER AS HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW AFTERNOON RH IN THE 30-45% RANGE. ADD TO
THAT THE INCREASING SE WINDS TODAY, AND YOU HAVE THE RECIPE FOR
RAPID FIRE STARTS AND WILDFIRE GROWTH FROM ANY FLAMES OR SPARKS
DUE TO CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AND PARCHED VEGETATION. THEREFORE, A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
REGION.
MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, THE MUCH ADVERTISED
PATTERN SHIFT REFERENCED ABOVE WILL BEGIN TO MANIFEST AS TROPICAL
PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF POLO CONTINUE TO LIFT NE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS. THE SURGING MOISTURE PLUME WILL
QUICKLY BE ABSORBED BY AN EASTWARD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING
FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, GRADUALLY SPREADING
FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE MIDDLE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO OUR REGION
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THE AXIS OF
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL LIKELY SET UP INVOF OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO
OUR WEST BUT MAY EXTEND AS FAR EAST AS OUR NORTHWESTERNMOST ZONES
IN NE TX AND SE OK WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS
BEEN HIGHLIGHTED FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE EXPANDING
SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST ON FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, THE THREAT OF SOME
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
GENERALLY OCCUPIES THE SAME AREAS IN NE TX AND SE OK ON THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS WE MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, REMNANT MOISTURE
WILL THEN INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR INCREASING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
THE FRONT EVENTUALLY CLEARS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THEN A
STRONGER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY TO USHER ANY LINGERING MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK BY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
FORECAST THINKING HASN'T REALLY DEVIATED IN TERMS OF RAINFALL
TOTALS AS THEY STILL APPEAR TO RANGE WIDELY FROM WEST TO EAST
WITH AS MUCH AS 1-3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF NE TX AND SE OK WHILE
AREAS FARTHER EAST IN SW AR AND NORTH LA ARE LIKELY TO SEE AROUND
AN INCH OR LESS. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
WITHIN ANY OF THESE AREAS, AND AMOUNTS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT IN FLUX
GIVEN FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE
RIDGE AXIS. HOWEVER, THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST LESS OF AN
INFLUENCE FROM THE RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS EAST ALONG THE SE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE, THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVY
RAIN AXIS MAY SHIFT DEEPER INTO NE TX AND SE OK BEFORE LEAVING A
SHARP GRADIENT OF MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST. THEREFORE, A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED FOR THESE AREAS WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
WHAT IS MORE CERTAIN IS THAT COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY INFILTRATE
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, POSSIBLY LEADING TO THE COOLEST AIR SO FAR THIS FALL SEASON
FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER.
/19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
FOR THE 30/06Z TAF CYCLE...HIGH CLOUDS A PLENTY ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE
AND AS WE GO THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS, SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS CREEP NORTHWARD AND ENCOMPASS AT LEAST THE TYR AND LFK
TERMINALS. ANY MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD BE TEMPORARY HOWEVER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING NEAR OR BEYOND 15Z. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE FOR WED SO HAVE ADDED SSE WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 18-25KTS
ACROSS ALL BUT THE ELD AND MLU TERMINALS THROUGH MID MORNING WED AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. WILL ADDRESS THE POSSIBILITY OF
RETURNING MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS WITH THE 12Z TAF
PACKAGE LATER THIS MORNING.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 95 74 93 73 / 0 0 20 40
MLU 96 71 95 72 / 0 0 20 10
DEQ 95 71 89 66 / 0 10 70 80
TXK 94 73 91 69 / 0 0 40 70
ELD 95 70 94 70 / 0 0 20 30
TYR 94 74 91 71 / 0 10 60 80
GGG 96 73 93 70 / 0 0 50 60
LFK 93 72 91 71 / 10 0 50 50
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...13
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page