538
FXUS64 KSHV 302242
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
542 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 504 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
- A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS OUR FAR W/NW ZONES BY THURSDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING AREAWIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW BY THIS WEEKEND, AS
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN THE COOLEST AIR SO FAR
THIS FALL SEASON FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RETURN FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 504 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, AS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STILL HAS A GRIP ON THE REGION. DESPITE
INCREASED CLOUDINESS, TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL MANAGED TO CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MOST AREAS REACHING TO LOW TO MID 90S THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A PATTERN CHANGE WILL START TO UNFOLD ACROSS
THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE THURSDAY, AS A CLOSED UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE CONUS WILL EJECT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS, THE UPPER-RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION, ALLOWING THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO OUR FORECAST
ZONES. THIS WILL BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN
ZONES BY TOMORROW MORNING, ALONG WITH A MARGINAL CHANCES OF SEVERE
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT, HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING EASTERN
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A
MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN OUR WESTERN ZONES,
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM TYLER TEXAS TO DEQUEEN
ARKANSAS, AS 2" TO 4" OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS OUTLOOK
COULD RESULT IN THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH FOR THOSE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. EVENTUALLY, THE
INTENSITY OF THE TROUGH WILL LOSE SOME STEAM BY LATE THURSDAY
EVENING, AS IT STARTS TO OPEN UP. DESPITE, THIS, RAIN CHANCES WILL
REMAIN, EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO THE ENTIRE REGION ON FRIDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY, BUT MODELS ARE KEEPING SOME POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, BEFORE THE COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS PUSH INTO THE
REGION.
EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
LIKELY SEE SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE EARLY FALL,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
FOR THE 30/18Z TAF UPDATE...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. BY TONIGHT, SOME MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP, MAINLY FOR OUR
EAST TEXAS TERMINALS, AND KSHV. WE COULD ALSO SEE SOME DROPS IN
VISIBILITY FOR KLFK AND KTYR. ALTHOUGH THE DROPS IN VISIBILITY FOR
KTYR WILL BE BECAUSE OF THE CHANCE OF RAIN THAT WILL INCREASE
AROUND 11/15Z WHERE I HAVE INTRODUCED -RA. I DON'T THINK THE RAIN
WILL PUSH ANY FURTHER EAST, SO I HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS FOR TOMORROW. THAT BEING SAID, WE ARE
MOVING INTO A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD, SO THERE IS SOME LIKELIHOOD
THAT IT WILL BE INTRODUCED AT SOME ADDITIONAL TERMINALS GOING
FORWARD. WINDS WILL BE GUST AT TIMES TODAY, WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS, AND THIS COULD INCREASE
TO AROUND 25 KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MORE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL. /33/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 504 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NEEDED BY TOMORROW EVENING INTO
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DAMAGING WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, FLASH
FLOODING WILL BY THE PRIMARY THREAT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS,
SE OKLAHOMA, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 30.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 74 94 74 87 / 0 10 40 60
MLU 71 93 72 92 / 0 10 10 40
DEQ 71 88 66 82 / 10 60 90 80
TXK 73 91 70 83 / 0 40 60 80
ELD 70 94 71 88 / 0 0 40 60
TYR 75 87 71 82 / 20 70 80 80
GGG 73 91 71 85 / 0 50 60 70
LFK 73 91 72 87 / 0 50 50 80
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...33
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