698
FXUS64 KSHV 010520
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1220 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
- THE ANTICIPATED WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST BY
THURSDAY AS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT IN FROM THE
WEST.
- THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN WEST OF I-49 THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH RAINFALL TOTALS MOST LIKELY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
BY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL AS A RESULT OF WET
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (MAXIMUMS OF MID-TO-UPPER 80S ON
AVERAGE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
ALOFT, A FAIRLY HEALTHY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF A
CUT OFF UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMERGING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY EJECT
AND FILL/WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY, ELONGATING INTO A
TROUGH AXIS IN A PROCESS THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. ATTENDANT AND COINCIDENT TO THIS TROUGHING IS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL DRIVE THE BULK OF MULTI-DAY RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST ROUNDS OF CONVECTION MAXIMIZING IN THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS
FROM EXTRA LIFT AND MOISTURE COLLECTING ALONG THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE DAYTIME HEATING WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
BUILDING INSTABILITY, BACKGROUND VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN
AMPLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SETTING
THE STAGE FOR DAY AND NIGHTTIME ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. WITH THE
BULK OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION FALLING WEST OF I-49, MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF RAINFALL TOTALS MOST LIKELY IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH AN OPPOSITE CORRIDOR ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA CARRYING LESS THAN A 40% PROBABILITY OF
GREATER THAN 0.5 INCH OF RAINFALL PER 24 HOUR PERIOD.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT PAUSE OR BREAK OF THE WET
WEATHER PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS POST-FRONTAL SURFACE
RIDGING AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS BACK IN ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH. IT REMAINS TO BE RESOLVED IF PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
INJECTED BACK INTO THIS FLOW LATER NEXT WEEK TO RESTORE RAIN
CHANCES, AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE MEMBERS MAY SUGGEST. THE COMBINED
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 72-HOURS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT (MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS OF MID-TO-UPPER
80S/LOWER 60S). BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, POST-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS MAY REACH THE MID-50S NORTH OF I-20 FOR A
SAMPLE OF FALL WEATHER. /16/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
FOR THE 01/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS, ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO CALM A TAD OVERNIGHT TO HOVER AROUND 5-10 KTS. MVFR CIGS
COULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 01/09Z FOR KLFK AND SPREAD
ACROSS MOST TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK TO AROUND 5000 FT DURING THE LATE MORNING.
IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE, RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT
KTYR AROUND 01/15Z AND SHIFT EASTWARD. KMLU AND KELD REMAIN DRY
FOR THIS PERIOD BUT MAY BE INCLUDED IN A FUTURE PACKAGE. BOTH
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KTS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ONGOING RAIN, ESPECIALLY DURING HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. WINDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AGAIN AS WE WRAP UP THIS PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. /57/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 504 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NEEDED BY TOMORROW EVENING INTO
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DAMAGING WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, FLASH
FLOODING WILL BY THE PRIMARY THREAT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS,
SE OKLAHOMA, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 30.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 94 74 94 73 / 0 0 20 30
MLU 94 71 95 73 / 0 0 10 10
DEQ 92 71 90 65 / 0 10 60 90
TXK 92 73 93 68 / 0 0 30 80
ELD 94 70 94 70 / 0 0 10 30
TYR 94 75 91 71 / 0 10 70 80
GGG 94 73 95 70 / 0 0 50 60
LFK 92 73 92 71 / 10 0 50 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...57
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