019
FXUS64 KSHV 011820
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
120 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
- THE ANTICIPATED WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST BY
THURSDAY AS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT IN FROM THE
WEST.
- THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN WEST OF I-49 THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH RAINFALL TOTALS MOST LIKELY IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE
BY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL AS A RESULT OF WET
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (MAXIMUMS OF MID-TO-UPPER 80S ON
AVERAGE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
ALOFT, A FAIRLY HEALTHY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES AHEAD OF A
CUT OFF UPPER-LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMERGING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY EJECT
AND FILL/WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY, ELONGATING INTO A
TROUGH AXIS IN A PROCESS THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. ATTENDANT AND COINCIDENT TO THIS TROUGHING IS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL DRIVE THE BULK OF MULTI-DAY RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST ROUNDS OF CONVECTION MAXIMIZING IN THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS
FROM EXTRA LIFT AND MOISTURE COLLECTING ALONG THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WHILE DAYTIME HEATING WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
BUILDING INSTABILITY, BACKGROUND VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL MAINTAIN
AMPLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SETTING
THE STAGE FOR DAY AND NIGHTTIME ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. WITH THE
BULK OF EXPECTED PRECIPITATION FALLING WEST OF I-49, MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF RAINFALL TOTALS MOST LIKELY IN THE
1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WITH AN OPPOSITE CORRIDOR ACROSS DEEP EAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA CARRYING LESS THAN A 40% PROBABILITY OF
GREATER THAN 0.5 INCH OF RAINFALL PER 24 HOUR PERIOD.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT PAUSE OR BREAK OF THE WET
WEATHER PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS POST-FRONTAL SURFACE
RIDGING AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SETS BACK IN ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH. IT REMAINS TO BE RESOLVED IF PACIFIC TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
INJECTED BACK INTO THIS FLOW LATER NEXT WEEK TO RESTORE RAIN
CHANCES, AS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE MEMBERS MAY SUGGEST. THE COMBINED
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT 72-HOURS WILL MAINTAIN NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT (MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS OF MID-TO-UPPER
80S/LOWER 60S). BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, POST-FRONTAL
TEMPERATURE MINIMUMS MAY REACH THE MID-50S NORTH OF I-20 FOR A
SAMPLE OF FALL WEATHER. /16/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR WITH S WINDS 5-10G20KT THIS AFTN
WITH CONVECTION ON APPROACH. KTYR/KTXK SHIFT TO N/NE OVERNIGHT
OTHERS VARY. MOST OF THE DYNAMICS ARE TIED TO THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THIS UPPER LOW IS WEAKENING AND WILL MOVE
QUICKLY NE, STRETCHING THE BOUNDARY SW- NE WHILE LAYING IT INTO
OUR AREA. IT MAY NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY WITH A 2ND
SFC HIGH. CONVECTION MAY BE LINGERING/REDEVELOPING IN THE
CORRIDOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, UNTIL SOMETIME EARLY ON SUNDAY. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 504 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE NEEDED BY TOMORROW EVENING INTO
FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME DAMAGING WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT, FLASH
FLOODING WILL BY THE PRIMARY THREAT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS,
SE OKLAHOMA, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 30.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 94 73 87 70 / 20 30 50 50
MLU 95 73 93 70 / 10 10 50 30
DEQ 90 65 79 61 / 60 90 70 50
TXK 93 68 81 63 / 30 80 70 60
ELD 94 70 87 64 / 10 30 50 50
TYR 91 71 81 69 / 70 80 80 70
GGG 95 70 85 67 / 50 60 70 70
LFK 92 71 87 70 / 50 40 70 40
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...24
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