045
FXUS64 KSHV 151831
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
131 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.
- A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE ARKLATEX FRIDAY, BRINGING
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH DRIER AIR.
- VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE ARK-LA-TX THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
WILL MERGE BACK WITH THE GREATER TROUGH AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON FRIDAY, RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS THE UPPER 60S
FOR SOME. AREAS OF CENTRAL LA COULD STILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S BEFORE THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THE SHARP DIP IN TEMPERATURES, STRONG WINDS AND DRY
AIR ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS FRONT. WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
COULD EASILY GUST ABOVE 30 MPH ON FRIDAY WITH RH'S DIPPING INTO
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. EVEN WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, THE
DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS WILL COMPOUND ON AN ALREADY DIRE DROUGHT
SITUATION IN TERMS OF FIRE WEATHER. FUELS ARE EXTREMELY DRY WITH
THE LACK OF CONSISTENT WETTING RAINFALL AND ARE PRONE TO CATCHING
FIRE FROM ANY SORT OF SPARK. THE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL MAKE
THESE SPARKING FIRES SPREAD MUCH MORE QUICKLY AND BE HARDER TO
CONTAIN. MOST COUNTIES AND PARISHES REMAIN UNDER BURN BANS DUE TO
THE ONGOING DROUGHT, BUT INCREASED CAUTION MUST BE TAKEN TO
PREVENT SPARKING WILDFIRES AND REPORT ANY THAT BEGIN QUICKLY TO
PROPER AUTHORITIES. AS SUCH, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS WATCH MERELY OUTLINES THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR FIRE SPREADING THAT WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE ON
FRIDAY AND MAY BE UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING WITH A FUTURE
FORECAST.
THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SETS
UP ANOTHER WARMING TREND. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY
WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE
RELIEF IN SIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
FOR THE 15/18Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED ACROSS ALL
OF OUR AIRSPACE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MODEST CU FIELD AROUND
3.5KFT AT MOST TERMINALS. MOVING INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH GUSTY
N/NW WINDS IMPACTING ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. IN ADDITION, SOME MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND MAY LINGER A BIT BEYOND FROPA ON FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT ROUGH CHOP AND OCCASIONAL TURBULENCE AS WINDS
VEER NORTH WITH FROPA AND SPEEDS CLIMB TO NEAR 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
OF 30 KTS OR HIGHER ON FRIDAY.
/19/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL CROSS AREA FIRE DISTRICTS ON FRIDAY,
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW. THIS FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE VERY DRY, DROPPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
INTO THE UPPER 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE VERY BREEZY, MAINTAINING SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. TOGETHER WITH CRITICALLY
DRY FUELS, THESE CONDITIONS MERIT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ALL
AREA FIRE DISTRICTS BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 64 71 50 68 / 0 10 0 0
MLU 65 77 50 70 / 0 10 0 0
DEQ 51 67 42 69 / 20 10 0 0
TXK 59 68 46 68 / 0 10 0 0
ELD 60 73 46 69 / 0 10 0 0
TYR 59 68 48 67 / 20 10 0 0
GGG 59 70 48 68 / 10 10 0 0
LFK 64 75 51 70 / 10 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ050-
051-059>061-070>073.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ077.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
OKZ077.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19
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