529
FXUS64 KSHV 151938
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
238 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY LOW
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY, POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- A POWERFUL DRY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW, BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
- BEHIND THE FRONT, SATURDAY WILL SEE COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
BY THIS TIME TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER ACROSS THE ARKLATEX, WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ADVERTISED
POWERFUL COLD FRONT. THIS EVENING WILL FIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA ABSORBING THE REMNANTS OF THE
CLOSED LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEK'S ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND OZARKS, PUSHING EASTWARD OVER THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW, ALL THE WHILE AMPLIFYING SOUTH AND WEST, TO SWING
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DOWN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH
ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST BY TOMORROW EVENING.
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS. ANY RAINFALL WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT TOWARDS MORNING, AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEGLIGIBLE.
OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ARKLATEX, ENTERING THE 50S NORTH WITH THE APPROACH AND
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. AS WITH LAST NIGHT'S PACKAGE, THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS FAVORING MORE PROGRESSIVE FORWARD MOTION OF THE TROUGH
AND SURFACE BOUNDARY, PLACING THE WIND SHIFT HERALDING THE FRONT'S
IMPENDING ARRIVAL AS SOON AS MIDNIGHT IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SPREADING SOUTH TOWARDS I-20 BY
DAYBREAK, AND AREAWIDE BY MIDMORNING. THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT
INDICATES THE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AT A SLIGHT DELAY,
REACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK, ENVELOPING THE
ENTIRE ARKLATEX IN VERY DRY CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WINDS OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS
AND GUSTS OF UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25% TO 35% RANGE, TOGETHER WITH PROLONGED
DROUGHT AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL TO THE EAST, WITH
REMNANT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ARKLATEX, AND BROADLY DEFINED
RIDGING TAKING SHAPE FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND, WHILE SURFACE WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY. AS
OF THIS WRITING, WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
ELEVATED THAN THOSE ON FRIDAY. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN, THE
RELATIVE LACK OF PROLONGED GUSTY WINDS AS A FACTOR HAS MOTIVATED
HOLDING OFF AT THIS TIME ON A POTENTIAL EXTENSION OF THE RED FLAG
WARNING, WHICH MAY BE CONSIDERED IF GUIDANCE POINTS TO ELEVATED
WINDS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXPEDITE A WARMING TREND, FROM HIGHS IN
THE 60S ON SATURDAY TO 70S ON SUNDAY AND 80S MAKING A WIDESPREAD
RETURN BY EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. THE CONTINUING PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT ANY
ACTIVE WEATHER, WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TO THE
END OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
/26/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
FOR THE 15/18Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED ACROSS ALL
OF OUR AIRSPACE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MODEST CU FIELD AROUND
3.5KFT AT MOST TERMINALS. MOVING INTO THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO OVERTAKE THE REGION WITH GUSTY
N/NW WINDS IMPACTING ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. IN ADDITION, SOME MVFR TO LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND MAY LINGER A BIT BEYOND FROPA ON FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT ROUGH CHOP AND OCCASIONAL TURBULENCE AS WINDS
VEER NORTH WITH FROPA AND SPEEDS CLIMB TO NEAR 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
OF 30 KTS OR HIGHER ON FRIDAY.
/19/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A POWERFUL DRY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN AREA FIRE DISTRICTS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO FOLLOW. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY,
PLUNGING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONCURRENTLY, NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINFALL TO IMPROVE
OUR ALREADY CRITICALLY DRY FUELS. ON TOP OF THE PROLONGED AND
WORSENING DROUGHT, THESE CONDITIONS MERIT AN AREAWIDE RED FLAG
WARNING, IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY IN THE
EVENT OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 64 71 50 68 / 0 10 0 0
MLU 65 77 50 70 / 0 10 0 0
DEQ 51 67 42 69 / 20 10 0 0
TXK 59 68 46 68 / 0 10 0 0
ELD 60 73 46 69 / 0 10 0 0
TYR 59 68 48 67 / 20 10 0 0
GGG 59 70 48 68 / 10 10 0 0
LFK 64 75 51 70 / 10 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ050-
051-059>061-070>073.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ077.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
OKZ077.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19
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