323
FXUS64 KSHV 160002 AAA
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
702 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. VERY LOW
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FRIDAY, POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- A POWERFUL DRY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW, BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES, SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIR AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
- BEHIND THE FRONT, SATURDAY WILL SEE COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
BY THIS TIME TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO 20 DEGREES
COOLER ACROSS THE ARKLATEX, WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE ADVERTISED
POWERFUL COLD FRONT. THIS EVENING WILL FIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA ABSORBING THE REMNANTS OF THE
CLOSED LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEK'S ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND OZARKS, PUSHING EASTWARD OVER THE MIDWEST OVERNIGHT AND
INTO TOMORROW, ALL THE WHILE AMPLIFYING SOUTH AND WEST, TO SWING
ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DOWN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTH
ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST BY TOMORROW EVENING.
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS. ANY RAINFALL WHICH DOES DEVELOP WILL TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT TOWARDS MORNING, AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEGLIGIBLE.
OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ARKLATEX, ENTERING THE 50S NORTH WITH THE APPROACH AND
ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT. AS WITH LAST NIGHT'S PACKAGE, THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS FAVORING MORE PROGRESSIVE FORWARD MOTION OF THE TROUGH
AND SURFACE BOUNDARY, PLACING THE WIND SHIFT HERALDING THE FRONT'S
IMPENDING ARRIVAL AS SOON AS MIDNIGHT IN SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, WITH
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SPREADING SOUTH TOWARDS I-20 BY
DAYBREAK, AND AREAWIDE BY MIDMORNING. THE DEWPOINT GRADIENT
INDICATES THE MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW AT A SLIGHT DELAY,
REACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK, ENVELOPING THE
ENTIRE ARKLATEX IN VERY DRY CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
COMBINATION OF ELEVATED WINDS OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS
AND GUSTS OF UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE WITH DANGEROUSLY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25% TO 35% RANGE, TOGETHER WITH PROLONGED
DROUGHT AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FRIDAY.
BY SATURDAY, THE TROUGH AXIS WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL TO THE EAST, WITH
REMNANT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ARKLATEX, AND BROADLY DEFINED
RIDGING TAKING SHAPE FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BEGIN THE WEEKEND, WHILE SURFACE WINDS BECOME NORTHEASTERLY. AS
OF THIS WRITING, WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
ELEVATED THAN THOSE ON FRIDAY. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN, THE
RELATIVE LACK OF PROLONGED GUSTY WINDS AS A FACTOR HAS MOTIVATED
HOLDING OFF AT THIS TIME ON A POTENTIAL EXTENSION OF THE RED FLAG
WARNING, WHICH MAY BE CONSIDERED IF GUIDANCE POINTS TO ELEVATED
WINDS CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL EXPEDITE A WARMING TREND, FROM HIGHS IN
THE 60S ON SATURDAY TO 70S ON SUNDAY AND 80S MAKING A WIDESPREAD
RETURN BY EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK. THE CONTINUING PROXIMITY OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT ANY
ACTIVE WEATHER, WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TO THE
END OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
/26/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
ASIDE FROM A FEW CU THAT MAY LINGER THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF
LOWER E TX/WCNTRL LA, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH MOSTLY SKC PREVAILING. HOWEVER, THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT HAS JUST BEGUN TO ENTER NW MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK INTO FAR
WRN AR ATTM, AND WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SE THIS EVENING TO THE
I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SW AR, BEFORE QUICKLY SWEEPING SE THROUGH
ALL BUT THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING NW
OF I-30, BEFORE QUICKLY SPILLING SE ACROSS ALL BUT THE MLU
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. THESE MVFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO MOVE THROUGH MLU
BY 13Z, WITH WINDS QUICKLY BECOMING NNW AND BECOMING GUSTY AS THE
FRONTAL ZONE DEEPENS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MVFR CIGS. ISOLATED
AREAS OF -RA/-SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT OVER SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF E TX
AFTER 12Z, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE E TX/SW AR
TERMINALS ATTM. THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT/BECOMING LOW VFR
FROM NW TO SE AROUND AND AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH THE LAGGING CU FIELD
ALSO SCATTERING OUT AND DIMINISHING ACROSS LOWER E TX/N LA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME AREAS OF LOW AC MAY LINGER THROUGH
THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE REGION,
BEFORE DIMINISHING BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LT/VRB WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME NNW AND INCREASE TO 7-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20KTS BETWEEN 07-12Z ACROSS NE TX/SW AR/NW LA. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NRLY AND INCREASE TO 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS
AFTER 12Z AREAWIDE. /15/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A POWERFUL DRY COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN AREA FIRE DISTRICTS
OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH UNSEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO FOLLOW. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY,
PLUNGING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CONCURRENTLY, NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 25 MPH THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINFALL TO IMPROVE
OUR ALREADY CRITICALLY DRY FUELS. ON TOP OF THE PROLONGED AND
WORSENING DROUGHT, THESE CONDITIONS MERIT AN AREAWIDE RED FLAG
WARNING, IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY IN THE
EVENT OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 64 71 50 68 / 0 10 0 0
MLU 65 77 50 70 / 0 10 0 0
DEQ 51 67 42 69 / 20 10 0 0
TXK 59 68 46 68 / 0 10 0 0
ELD 60 73 46 69 / 0 10 0 0
TYR 59 68 48 67 / 20 10 0 0
GGG 59 70 48 68 / 10 10 0 0
LFK 64 75 51 70 / 10 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ050-
051-059>061-070>073.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ077.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
OKZ077.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page