738
FXUS64 KSHV 160444
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1144 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
- A POWERFUL, DRY COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING, BRINGING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES,
SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR, AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TO HIGHLIGHT INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER DANGER FROM INCOMING DRY AIR AND GUSTY WINDS.
- BEHIND THE FRONT, SATURDAY WILL SEE COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, FOLLOWED BY A STEADY WARMING TREND INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGHOUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO SPEED UP THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
COLD FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ALONG
THE FRONT, WHICH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX TO
WESTERN AR. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THAT ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION OVERNIGHT,
BUT VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE I-30 CORRIDOR SHOULD
COOL INTO THE 50S JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY THANKS TO THE FROPA
AND PEAK RADIATIONAL COOLING.
CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS THE COLD FRONT STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM DEEP
EAST TX UP INTO SOUTHWEST AR BY SUNRISE AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION BY MID-LATE MORNING. THE FRONT WILL IMMEDIATELY BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE
DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO LAG A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT,
FULLY ENCOMPASSING THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS AND RH'S OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT. WITH THE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY
AND THE PROLONGED DROUGHT, WILDFIRE STARTS AND SPREADING WILL
OCCUR MUCH QUICKER. PUBLIC INTERESTS SHOULD CONSIDER TEMPORARILY
POSTPONING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING. THESE PRODUCTS MAY NEED EXTENDING
INTO THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON HOW INCOMING DATA TRENDS.
EVEN WITH THE FRONT LONG PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST, MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES COULD DIP
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH OTHER AREAS DROPPING INTO THE 40S. BUT HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S WILL ONCE AGAIN GIVE WAY TO MID TO UPPER 80S BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING REDEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
ASIDE FROM A FEW CU THAT MAY LINGER THIS EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF
LOWER E TX/WCNTRL LA, VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH MOSTLY SKC PREVAILING. HOWEVER, THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT HAS JUST BEGUN TO ENTER NW MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK INTO FAR
WRN AR ATTM, AND WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SE THIS EVENING TO THE
I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SW AR, BEFORE QUICKLY SWEEPING SE THROUGH
ALL BUT THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. BEHIND
THE FRONT, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING NW
OF I-30, BEFORE QUICKLY SPILLING SE ACROSS ALL BUT THE MLU
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. THESE MVFR CIGS SHOULD ALSO MOVE THROUGH MLU
BY 13Z, WITH WINDS QUICKLY BECOMING NNW AND BECOMING GUSTY AS THE
FRONTAL ZONE DEEPENS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MVFR CIGS. ISOLATED
AREAS OF -RA/-SHRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT OVER SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF E TX
AFTER 12Z, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION IN THE E TX/SW AR
TERMINALS ATTM. THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD QUICKLY LIFT/BECOMING LOW VFR
FROM NW TO SE AROUND AND AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH THE LAGGING CU FIELD
ALSO SCATTERING OUT AND DIMINISHING ACROSS LOWER E TX/N LA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME AREAS OF LOW AC MAY LINGER THROUGH
THROUGH AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE REGION,
BEFORE DIMINISHING BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LT/VRB WINDS THIS
EVENING WILL BECOME NNW AND INCREASE TO 7-12KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20KTS BETWEEN 07-12Z ACROSS NE TX/SW AR/NW LA. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NRLY AND INCREASE TO 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS
AFTER 12Z AREAWIDE. /15/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED DURING THE DAY FRIDAY IN THE
EVENT OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 64 71 50 68 / 0 10 0 0
MLU 65 77 50 70 / 0 10 0 0
DEQ 51 67 42 69 / 20 10 0 0
TXK 59 68 46 68 / 0 10 0 0
ELD 60 73 46 69 / 0 10 0 0
TYR 59 68 48 67 / 20 10 0 0
GGG 59 70 48 68 / 10 10 0 0
LFK 64 75 51 70 / 10 10 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ050-
051-059>061-070>073.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ077.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
OKZ077.
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...15
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