478
FXUS64 KSHV 162345
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
645 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- AN AREAWIDE RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 1 AM TONIGHT.
NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA PARISHES WILL BE INCLUDED IN A RED
FLAG WARNING TOMORROW FOR CONTINUED VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
WINDS.
- COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A STEADY WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY WEATHER
THROUGHOUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT, AREA DEW POINTS ARE PLUMMETING INTO
THE 30S AND 40S AS A VERY DRY AIRMASS POURS INTO THE ARKLATEX. NORTH
WINDS ARE REACHING GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KTS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
BEFORE WINDS TREND DOWNWARD AND HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASE TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH THAT FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED UNLESS IN VERY ISOLATED SHELTERED POCKETS.
DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN LOW TOMORROW, BRINGING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BACK INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS ELEVATED AS TODAY, ACHIEVING SUSTAINED
SPEEDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS OF UP TO 30 KTS
POSSIBLE, THE HIGHEST SPEEDS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA. GIVEN THESE FACTORS, HAVE ELECTED TO
ISSUE A NEW RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
PARISHES FROM 7 AM THROUGH 9 PM TOMORROW, WITH ALL OTHER COUNTIES
AND PARISHES INCLUDED IN A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.
THE ARKLATEX WILL WAKE UP TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
MORNING, RANGING FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL WHILE COOL AIR
ADVECTION KEEPS AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO JUST BARELY
BREAKING 70 DEGREES AT OUR WARMEST SITES TOMORROW. SUNDAY MORNING
LOOKS TO BE THE CHILLIEST OF THIS FORECAST, AS LOWS FALL INTO THE
40S AREAWIDE WITH EVEN A FEW UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ALL AREA SITES SHOULD BE TAKING AIM
AT THE 70S ONCE AGAIN AS RIDGING BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE ALOFT OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS.
REBUILDING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOLLOWED BY AMPLIFYING RIDGING FROM
EAST TEXAS OVER THE OUACHITAS AND OZARKS WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
WARMING TREND GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH UPPER 70S AND AND LOWER 80S
MAKING A WIDESPREAD RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND MIDDLE TO UPPER
80S AND EVEN SOME SITES REACHING 90 AGAIN BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
THE CONTINUING PROXIMITY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL INHIBIT ANY ACTIVE WEATHER, WITH DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TO THE END OF THIS EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.
/26/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT MOST
TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF CYCLE. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS AT MOST LOCATIONS
INITIALLY, BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY
MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. HOWEVER, VERY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND
INTO DEEP EAST TEXAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, SO I DID
INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS AT KMLU AND KLFK. WINDS SPEEDS MAY
INCREASE AGAIN, AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS MAY RETURN AGAIN AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD FINALLY
RELAX AFTER 17/18Z ALLOWING WINDS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 KTS OR
LESS. OTHERWISE, VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
/NUTTALL/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, VERY DRY AIR WILL OVERTAKE
AREA FIRE DISTRICTS, PLUNGING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INTO THE 25
TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. CONCURRENTLY, NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
MAINTAIN SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE. VERY LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TOMORROW. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS ELEVATED AS TODAY,
ACHIEVING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 5 TO 15 KTS WITH ISOLATED GUSTS OF UP
TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE, THE HIGHEST SPEEDS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA, WHICH WILL BE INCLUDED IN
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM TOMORROW. ALL OTHER ZONES
WILL BE INCLUDED IN A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.
/26/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY IN THE EVENT OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
/26/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 50 69 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 50 70 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 41 71 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 46 69 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 45 70 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 48 69 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 48 70 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 51 71 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ005-006-
013-014-018>022.
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ077.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...09
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