690
FXUS64 KSHV 170423
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1123 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ARK-LA-TX DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA PARISHES WILL BE
INCLUDED IN A RED FLAG WARNING FOR CONTINUED VERY LOW HUMIDITY
AND ELEVATED WINDS.
- COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A STEADY WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY WEATHER
THROUGHOUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AFTER TODAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S, RH'S WILL BE
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK WITH THE ELEVATED
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO KEEP FIRE DANGER THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR
THIS WEEKEND. ONGOING DROUGHT HAS RESULTED IN VERY DRY FUELS THAT
WILL EASILY CATCH FIRE AND SPREAD. FIRE DANGER SHOULD DIMINISH
ALONG WITH THE WINDS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES SUNDAY AND AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEK, LEADING TO
ANOTHER WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
SUNDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRY AIRMASS WILL WORK TO
KEEP ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT BAY AND WORK TO WORSEN DROUGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
57
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
FOR THE 17/00Z TAFS, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT MOST
TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF CYCLE. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KTS AT MOST LOCATIONS
INITIALLY, BUT WIND SPEEDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY
MIDNIGHT LOCAL TIME. HOWEVER, VERY STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND
INTO DEEP EAST TEXAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, SO I DID
INCLUDE A MENTION OF LLWS AT KMLU AND KLFK. WINDS SPEEDS MAY
INCREASE AGAIN, AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS MAY RETURN AGAIN AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD FINALLY
RELAX AFTER 17/18Z ALLOWING WINDS TO FALL TO AROUND 10 KTS OR
LESS. OTHERWISE, VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
/NUTTALL/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY IN THE
EVENT OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 50 69 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 50 70 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 41 71 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 46 69 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 45 70 41 73 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 48 69 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 48 70 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 51 71 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ005-006-
013-014-018>022.
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ077.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...09
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