000
FXUS64 KSHV 171752
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1252 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ARK-LA-TX DURING THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA PARISHES WILL BE
INCLUDED IN A RED FLAG WARNING FOR CONTINUED VERY LOW HUMIDITY
AND ELEVATED WINDS.
- COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A STEADY WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY WEATHER
THROUGHOUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY AFTER TODAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S, RH'S WILL BE
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE DRY AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK WITH THE ELEVATED
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO KEEP FIRE DANGER THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR
THIS WEEKEND. ONGOING DROUGHT HAS RESULTED IN VERY DRY FUELS THAT
WILL EASILY CATCH FIRE AND SPREAD. FIRE DANGER SHOULD DIMINISH
ALONG WITH THE WINDS BEGINNING ON SUNDAY BUT DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF
COAST STATES SUNDAY AND AMPLIFY THROUGH THE WEEK, LEADING TO
ANOTHER WARMING TREND. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
SUNDAY WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE AND THE DRY AIRMASS WILL WORK TO
KEEP ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AT BAY AND WORK TO WORSEN DROUGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
57
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
FOR THE 17/18Z TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR
AIRSPACE WITH MOSTLY SKC ASIDE FROM SOME VERY SPARSE COVERAGE OF
CIRRUS ACROSS OUR WESTERN TERMINALS AND SOME CU LIKEWISE OVER THE
EAST TOWARD KELD AND KMLU. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SKC TO DOMINATE AFTER
18/00Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND N/NE WINDS DECOUPLING TO
AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS. WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY MORE E/NE ON SUNDAY WITH
SPEEDS STILL HOLDING NEAR 5 KTS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS.
/19/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY IN THE
EVENT OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 47 72 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 46 73 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 41 72 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 44 71 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 42 73 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 46 70 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 45 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 49 73 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ005-006-013-
014-018>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...19
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