225
FXUS64 KSHV 180024
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
724 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TX DURING THROUGH
THE REST OF DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ARK-LA-MISS. LIGHTER
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER SOME, IN COMPARISON
TO SATURDAY.
- BREAK OUT THE JACKETS AND SWEATSHIRTS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS!
- COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A STEADY WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY WEATHER
THROUGHOUT AND A CONTINUED BACKGROUND FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
A SEASONABLY COOL, CONTINENTAL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH
INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS MOST
CONCENTRATED IN THE ARKLAMISS AND TOWARD CENTRAL LA. IT IS IN THESE
AREAS WHERE THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 7 PM CDT
TODAY DUE TO THE JUXTAPOSITION OF WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25, MINIMUM RH
VALUES OF 30 TO 35 PERCENT, AND VERY DRY GRASS AND TREE FUELS. THIS
WILL PROMOTE AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF WILDFIRE SPREAD. FORTUNATELY,
THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN A GOOD DEAL OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER TOMORROW AS THE LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALIGNS FROM
CENTRAL TX NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THAT SAID, WE WILL STILL
MAINTAIN A GENERAL FIRE DANGER STATEMENT GOING INTO TOMORROW TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FIRE CONCERN GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN AREAS OF
DROUGHT AND DRY GRASSES AND STRESSED TREES. HIGHS WILL MAINLY RANGE
FROM 68 TO 73 THIS AFTERNOON WITH EXTREMELY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TONIGHT BRINGING LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID 40S SOUTH TO
UPPER 30S NORTH BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING. EXTREMELY LIGHT FROST
CANNOT BE ABSOLUTELY RULED OUT IN TYPICALLY COLDER AND SHELTERED
VALLEYS IN FAR NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN IN ANY ONE SPOT IS GENERALLY TOO LOW TO CONSIDER A
FROST ADVISORY. THE AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BEGIN MODIFYING TOMORROW
WITH ONLY A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.
THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND COMMENCING TOMORROW WILL BE A MAJOR THEME
AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGING ALOFT, WHICH HAS BEEN A
STAPLE OF THE PAST FEW MONTHS AND CONTRIBUTING TO THE REGIONAL
DROUGHT, WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA - IN BETWEEN A GENERAL TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 BY TUESDAY AND TO A RANGE OF 85 TO 90 DEGREES
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WHICH IS AGAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR. INTERESTINGLY, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REBOUND QUITE
AS QUICKLY AS HIGHS DUE TO MANY NIGHTS OF DECENT TO GREAT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND ONLY A SLOW RECOVERY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. LOWS WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MODERATING TO MAINLY THE 50S BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE MENTIONED LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY
THIS COMING WEEK WILL CONTRIBUTING TO WORSENING DROUGHT AND
AFTERNOON RH VALUES MAINLY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE MOST DAYS,
WHICH WILL IN TURN KEEP THE DAILY WILDFIRE THREAT GOING. AT LEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THIS PERIOD AND
THIS WILL SOMEWHAT MITIGATE A MORE SIGNIFICANT WILDFIRE CONCERN.
THERE IS SOME LOW END HOPE THAT THE TROUGH ENERGY OUT WEST EARLY
NEXT WEEK MAY EVENTUALLY MANIFEST IN A DISTURBANCE OR TWO GLANCING
OUR WESTERN ZONES BY NEXT WEEKEND AND THIS COULD, IN TURN, GET SOME
RAIN OPPORTUNITIES IN THOSE AREAS. BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE
THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WETTER PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION IS QUITE LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. /50/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, SUPER NICE FALL PATTERN OF COOLER AIR
ON NE WINDS THE LAST DAY OR TWO. GUSTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF
WITH E/NE WINDS THIS CYCLE NEAR 5KT OR < OVERNIGHT AND BACK TO
8KT BY MID MORNING. CLIMB WINDS ARE NE10-20KT AND BACK TO NW BY
15KFT WITH 20-50KT FOR FLS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL PARK FOR A WHILE, EVEN BE RECHARGED IN THE NEW
WEEK TO CONTINUE THIS FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE
MONTH. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK PLUS.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
IN THE EVENT OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 46 73 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 44 74 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 39 75 42 79 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 43 72 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 40 74 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 46 72 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 44 72 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 47 74 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ005-006-013-
014-018>022.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...50
AVIATION...24
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