858
FXUS64 KSHV 180415
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1115 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON ARE ON DECK FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW PATCHES OF FROST
NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY.
- COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY A STEADY WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY WEATHER
THROUGHOUT AND A CONTINUED BACKGROUND FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
A CHILLY MORNING ACROSS THE ARK-LA-TX WILL GIVE WAY TO
CONTINUED FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE COOLER AIRMASS THAT
HAS RECENTLY SETTLED OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, ANOTHER UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND WILL WORK TO WARM THINGS BACK UP INTO THE 80S BY MIDWEEK.
IN ADDITION, BROAD SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR AND PREVENT ANY RAIN FROM PROVIDING RELIEF.
THE GUSTY WINDS THAT ACCOMPANIED THE ARRIVAL OF OUR CURRENT
AIRMASS HAVE WEAKENED, WHICH MEANS THE RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE SATURDAY EVENING. WE HAVE ELECTED TO CARRY A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY TO HIGHLIGHT CONTINUED
FIRE DANGER, EVEN WITH WEAKER WINDS. THE DRY AIR WILL BE STICKING
AROUND DESPITE THE EXPECTED WARMING. IN FACT, RH'S DURING THE
AFTERNOONS ARE LIKELY TO WORSEN FURTHER INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AR COULD SEE RH'S BELOW 20
PERCENT BY WEDNESDAY, WITH MOST OTHER LOCATIONS SEEING MIN RH'S IN
THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. ON ONE HAND, THIS WILL KEEP HEAT
INDICES LOW AND MAKE BEING OUTSIDE AS COMFORTABLE AS POSSIBLE. ON
THE OTHER, ONGOING DROUGHT AND ALREADY EXTREMELY DRY FUELS WILL BE
EXACERBATED BY THE DRY AIR AND KEEP FIRE DANGER A TOP CONCERN.
MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC SHOULD CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE DIRECTION OF
LOCAL OFFICIALS ON OUTDOOR BURNING, EVEN WITHOUT A RED FLAG
WARNING IN PLACE.
RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS EXTREMELY SLIM FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
THE ONLY POSSIBILITY AT THIS POINT WOULD COME FROM TROUGHING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CURRENT LONG-
RANGE MODELS HAVE THE BUILDING RIDGE KEEPING ANY ACTIVITY THAT
WOULD COME OFF THIS TROUGH TOO FAR NORTH. BUT PLENTY COULD HAPPEN
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
57
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, SUPER NICE FALL PATTERN OF COOLER AIR
ON NE WINDS THE LAST DAY OR TWO. GUSTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OFF
WITH E/NE WINDS THIS CYCLE NEAR 5KT OR < OVERNIGHT AND BACK TO
8KT BY MID MORNING. CLIMB WINDS ARE NE10-20KT AND BACK TO NW BY
15KFT WITH 20-50KT FOR FLS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MS
RIVER VALLEY WILL PARK FOR A WHILE, EVEN BE RECHARGED IN THE NEW
WEEK TO CONTINUE THIS FAIR WEATHER PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE
MONTH. LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK PLUS.
/24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
IN THE EVENT OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 46 73 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 44 74 46 78 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 39 75 42 79 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 43 72 45 77 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 40 74 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 46 72 48 76 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 44 72 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 47 74 50 77 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...24
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