173
FXUS64 KSHV 190430
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1130 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND WARM.
- FOLLOWING PROPER FIRE WEATHER PRECAUTIONS, SUCH AS OBEYING
LOCAL BURN BANS AND REFRAINING FROM ACTIVITIES THAT COULD
GENERATE SPARKS/FLAMES WILL HELP MITIGATE FIRE STARTS AND
SPREADS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, AND WILL BE
ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AFTER AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BROUGHT SOME
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD IN STRENGTH BUT SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY LOW
AMPLITUDE. THE RIDGE WILL WORK TO KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND
BEGIN ANOTHER WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS WEEK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY AND STAY THERE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ONE ASPECT OF THE FORECAST THAT COULD CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEK ARE
THE DEW POINTS, AND NOT FOR THE BETTER. PERSISTANT EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN DRY CONTINENTAL AIR,
KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. WITH THE WARMING TEMPERATURES, RH'S
WILL LIKELY DROP THROUGH THE WEEK AND KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
AT THE FOREFRONT. MIN RH'S IN THE AFTERNOONS COULD DROP INTO THE
20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, WITH SOME PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AR POSSIBLY
DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY THURSDAY. FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS OR
OTHER FIRE PRODUCTS COULD BE ISSUED DAILY THROUGH THE WEEK AS A
RESULT OF THESE DRY CONDITIONS. MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HEED THE GUIDANCE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS ON OUTSIDE
BURNING AND MONITOR LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT WEST SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. THIS WILL DO LITTLE TO CHANGE CONDITIONS
FOR THE ARK-LA-TX, BUT WILL LIKELY BE A STRONG FACTOR IN WHETHER
OR NOT A STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW ON THE WEST COAST IS ABLE TO
BRING ANY RELIEF THROUGH COOLER TEMPERATURES OR RAIN. AT THIS
TIME, ODDS LOOK SLIM THAT THIS LOW WILL BE ABLE TO OVERTAKE THE
RIDGE THAT WILL BE STRETCHING OVER MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS BY
NEXT WEEKEND, LEAVING THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE DRY AND WARM.
57
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR FOR THIS TAF CYCLE AND ALL THIS WEEK
PERHAPS AS COOL AND DRY AIR BECOMES WARMER AND DRIER AIR
INCREASING OUR WILDFIRE THREAT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC IS BEING FORTIFIED BY A SECONDARY AIR MASS MOVING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. E/SE WINDS 5-10KT FOR MONDAY WILL BACK TO
E/NE FOR TUESDAY AND REMAIN NE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. ALOFT,
THE WESTERLIES ARE STREAMING IN CIRRUS WITH NO RAIN CLOUDS EXPECTED
UNTIL AFTER NEXT WEEKEND, TO END THE MONTH. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK IN THE
EVENT OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 51 77 51 78 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 48 77 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 44 82 47 82 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 47 80 48 80 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 45 80 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 50 79 52 79 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 48 78 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 51 78 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...24
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