181
FXUS64 KSHV 201733
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1233 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
- GRADUAL WARMING WILL BRING THE ARK-LA-TX BACK ABOVE 80 DEGREES
BY MIDWEEK, WITH NO END IN SIGHT.
- PERSISTANT DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN DROUGHT AND FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
- THE CURRENT FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS NOW IN PLACE UNTIL AT
LEAST 7 PM CDT FRIDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WEST AS IT INTENSIFIES AND WILL KEEP UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
NORTHERLY AND DRY. THE DRY AIR COMBINED WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE FROM
THE RIDGE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND FREE OF RAIN THROUGH
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. THE RECENT NBM HAS PULLED BACK MAX
TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, KEEPING THINGS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS CONTINUING TO CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SHOULD THIS RELATIVELY
COOLER SOLUTION VERIFY, TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY WILL BE BACK TO
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DESPITE WARMER TEMPERATURES, THE CURRENT AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO STAY
NOTICEABLY DRY. LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE KEEPING SURFACE WINDS
EASTERLY FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP DRY, CONTINENTAL
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE EARLIEST CHANGE TO THIS WOULD BE
LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES, WHICH WOULD POSSIBLY SHIFT WINDS
SOUTHERLY IF THE EDGES OF THE HIGH CAN REACH FAR ENOUGH SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS, AS THIS IS
LOOKING PAST THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
THE DRYNESS WILL CONTINUE TO PUT FIRE WEATHER AT THE FOREFRONT OF
THE FORECAST THIS WEEK. THE ONGOING FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH THIS FRIDAY NIGHT, AS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK. MANY COUNTIES AND PARISHES HAVE
BURN BANS IN PLACE DUE TO THE PERSISTANT DROUGHT AND EXTREMELY DRY
FUELS PRESENT FROM LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL RAIN. THE PUBLIC IS
ENCOURAGED TO AVOID ANY OUTDOOR BURNING OR ACTIVITIES THAT COULD
SPARK WILDFIRES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
57
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
BEAUTIFUL FLYING CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR AIRSPACE THRU THIS TAF
PERIOD. JUST SOME INCREASING HIGH/MID CLOUD FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
NE TO E WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS THRU SUNSET, BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF WED. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
13
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEK IN THE EVENT OF
WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 52 82 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 50 81 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 47 81 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 51 81 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 47 81 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 53 81 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 48 81 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 54 82 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...57
AVIATION...13
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