521
FXUS64 KSHV 202359
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
659 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- A SLIGHT AND CONTINUOUS WARMING TREND, ALONG WITH REDUCED
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES NEAR ZERO, WILL MAINTAIN ALREADY
ELEVATED WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT RISKS.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO PERCENT THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR (MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS IN THE LOWER 80S/LOWER 50S,
RESPECTIVELY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
ANOTHER DAY OF SURFACE RIDGING IS UNDERWAY WITH TROUGHING OFF OF
THE WEST COAST AND EAST COAST OF THE CONUS. ALL SPATIOTEMPORAL
FORECAST TRENDS ARE FOR RIDGING TO REMAIN AS THE PREDOMINANT
WEATHER INFLUENCE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
REST OF OCTOBER. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP WILL SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD (NEAR 0% ALL WEEK) AND KEEP
TEMPERATURE MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
(MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS IN THE LOWER 80S/LOWER 50S, RESPECTIVELY).
COMBINED WITH DRY ANTECEDENT SOILS AND AN EXPANSION OF SEVERE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS BEING MAINTAINED, FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A TOP FORECAST CONCERN/IMPACT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
NORTH OF I-20.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE RIDGING WILL VERY
GRADUALLY EVOLVE IN SHAPE AND SPEED, ELONGATING INTO AN AXIS
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
SHIFTING EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE PROCESS, THE DRY
AIRMASS WILL REINFORCE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS OR CALM WINDS THROUGH
THE WEEK (A WELCOME REPRIEVE FROM MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS). EXTENDED OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO PAINT A DRY OUTLOOK FOR
THE REST OF OCTOBER WITH SIGNALS FOR RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER TO
PERSIST LATER INTO NEXT WEEK BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES
THE AREA FOR HALLOWEEN. /16/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BLOWING COOL AND DRY WIND DOWN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WE
WILL KEEP E/NE5-10KT FOR WEDNESDAY PLUS. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH, BRINGING SINKING AIR
IN LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH OUR NEXT FROPA FINALLY
BRINGING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE WITH SOME NEEDED CONVECTION DURING
TUESDAY/NIGHT NEXT WEEK. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEK IN THE EVENT OF
WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 52 82 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 50 81 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 47 81 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 51 81 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 47 81 50 82 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 53 81 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 48 81 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 54 82 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...24
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