214
FXUS64 KSHV 210447
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1147 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE
RISK.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO PERCENT THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR (MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS IN THE LOWER 80S/LOWER 50S,
RESPECTIVELY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
UPPER-RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS TO CONTINUE
TO BUILD AREAWIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK RESULTING
IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN WELL ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WITH A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN PLACE,
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 20 TO 25 PERCENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, SUPPORTING A CONTINUED WILDFIRE THREAT
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.
SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST ALLOWING FOR WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
ADVECT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EACH DAY. OTHERWISE, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ARKLATEX ON TUESDAY. /05/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, VFR CONTINUES THIS WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BLOWING COOL AND DRY WIND DOWN THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WE
WILL KEEP E/NE5-10KT FOR WEDNESDAY PLUS. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE EXITING SURFACE HIGH, BRINGING SINKING AIR
IN LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH OUR NEXT FROPA FINALLY
BRINGING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE WITH SOME NEEDED CONVECTION DURING
TUESDAY/NIGHT NEXT WEEK. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEK IN THE EVENT OF
WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 51 82 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 49 82 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 47 83 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 50 82 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 46 82 48 83 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 52 81 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 48 81 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 53 82 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...24
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