055
FXUS64 KSHV 210533
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1233 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE
RISK.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO PERCENT THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR (MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS IN THE LOWER 80S/LOWER 50S,
RESPECTIVELY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
UPPER-RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS TO CONTINUE
TO BUILD AREAWIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK RESULTING
IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN WELL ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WITH A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN PLACE,
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 20 TO 25 PERCENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, SUPPORTING A CONTINUED WILDFIRE THREAT
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.
SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST ALLOWING FOR WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
ADVECT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EACH DAY. OTHERWISE, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ARKLATEX ON TUESDAY. /05/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
FOR THE 21/06Z TAF PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH FEW TO SCT
PASSING MID & HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL
RANGE FROM LIGHT/VARIABLE ENE BETWEEN 5-7 MPH DURING THE PERIOD.
/20/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEK IN THE EVENT OF
WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 54 83 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 51 84 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 50 84 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 52 83 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 48 83 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 54 83 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 50 83 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 52 84 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...20
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