188
FXUS64 KSHV 211807
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
107 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE
RISK.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO PERCENT THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR (MAXIMUMS/MINIMUMS IN THE LOWER 80S/LOWER 50S,
RESPECTIVELY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
UPPER-RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS TO CONTINUE
TO BUILD AREAWIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK RESULTING
IN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL REMAIN WELL ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. WITH A CONTINENTAL AIRMASS IN PLACE,
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS LOW AS 20 TO 25 PERCENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, SUPPORTING A CONTINUED WILDFIRE THREAT
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX.
SURFACE HIGH TO SHIFT EAST ALLOWING FOR WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
ADVECT GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EACH DAY. OTHERWISE, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ARKLATEX ON TUESDAY. /05/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
FOR THE 21/18Z TAF UPDATE, VFR VIS/CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. ANY PERIODIC INCREASES IN
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION, WHILE FEW250 WILL
REMAIN THE MOST LIKELY CIG THROUGH THE PERIOD. /16/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEK IN THE EVENT OF
WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 51 83 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 47 84 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 47 85 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 50 83 51 83 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 45 84 46 84 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 53 83 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 49 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 50 84 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...16
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