349
FXUS64 KSHV 220449
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1149 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
- SEASONABLY WARM AND PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN AN
ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK THROUGHOUT THIS 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
- THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DROUGHT
DEGRADATION THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
- LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE BEYOND THE NEXT 7 DAYS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN CLOSER TO HALLOWEEN INTO
EARLY NOVEMBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND ELEVATED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
REMAIN FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. ADDITIONALLY, THE COMBINATION OF
DRIER AIR AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED
WILDFIRE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE 7 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. FORTUNATELY, THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS WILL HELP
TO SLOW THE SPREAD OF ANY WILDFIRES THAT DO DEVELOP.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE ALOFT. COULD SEE INCREASED CLOUD-
COVER AREAWIDE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS DUE TO
INCREASED MIXING. HOWEVER, SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS REMAINING EAST TO
NORTHEAST, RESTRICTING GULF MOISTURE RETURN.
OTHERWISE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. WITH A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
/05/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
FOR THE ARKLATEX TERMINALS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE U.S.
CONTINUES TO SPRAWL DOWN THE OH/MS RIVER VALLEYS WITH E/NE WINDS
PREVAILING AT 3-7KT FOR US. OUR CLIMB WINDS REMAIN LIGHT NE10KT
AND BACK TO ALL NW FLOW BY 10KFT WITH 15KT INCREASING TO 65KT BY
FL300. NO PATTERN CHANGES EXPECTED UNTIL LATE MONTH WITH MORE
CHAMBER OF COMMERCE FAIR WX THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND. /24/
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS WEEK IN THE EVENT
OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 52 83 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 48 84 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 48 86 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 50 84 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 45 84 46 84 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 53 84 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 49 83 50 84 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 50 84 51 84 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...24
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page