398
FXUS64 KSHV 221058
AFDSHV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
558 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
- SEASONABLY WARM AND PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN AN
ELEVATED WILDFIRE RISK THROUGHOUT THIS 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD.
- THE LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DROUGHT
DEGRADATION THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.
- LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE BEYOND THE NEXT 7 DAYS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN CLOSER TO HALLOWEEN INTO
EARLY NOVEMBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK RESULTING IN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND ELEVATED AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
A BROAD SURFACE HIGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND RIDGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
REMAIN FIRMLY ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS DRY AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. ADDITIONALLY, THE COMBINATION OF
DRIER AIR AND ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED
WILDFIRE THREAT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE 7 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD. FORTUNATELY, THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS WILL HELP
TO SLOW THE SPREAD OF ANY WILDFIRES THAT DO DEVELOP.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHWEST FLOW TO INCREASE ALOFT. COULD SEE INCREASED CLOUD-
COVER AREAWIDE ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS DUE TO
INCREASED MIXING. HOWEVER, SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS REMAINING EAST TO
NORTHEAST, RESTRICTING GULF MOISTURE RETURN.
OTHERWISE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. WITH A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, NOT
EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
/05/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
FOR THE 22/12Z TAF PERIOD...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL RANGE
FROM LIGHT/VARIABLE TO ENE BETWEEN 5-7 MPH DURING THE PERIOD. /20/
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM FRIDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN THE UPPER TEENS TO 30%, ALONG
WITH ONGOING SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT, WILL CONTINUE TO
YIELD ELEVATED WILDFIRE CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS WEEK IN THE EVENT
OF WILDFIRE DEVELOPMENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 83 53 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 84 49 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 86 49 85 51 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 84 51 84 53 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 84 46 84 48 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 84 54 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 83 50 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 84 51 84 52 / 0 0 0 0
SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...20
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