584
FNUS72 KTAE 261343
FWSTAE
SPOT FORECAST FOR ABRP 16-20...THE NATURE CONSERVANCY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
943 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON MAY 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT OUR OFFICE AT (850) 942-8833, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS AT THE BURN SITE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE MID 90S. THE RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ABOVE 40 TO
45% THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE IN THE MORNING
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN
CHANCES TOPPING AROUND 30 TO 40% TODAY. WITH WARM CONDITIONS,
STEADY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, AND GOOD MIXING HEIGHTS DISPERSIONS
SHOULD REACH A PEAK AROUND 50 TO 55 TODAY. MAIN CONCERNS AT THE
SITE WOULD BE ANY OUTFLOW WINDS FROM NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.
COVERAGE OF STORMS STEADILY DECREASES AROUND SUNSET AND NO
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SITE OVERNIGHT BUT IT WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 94.
MIN HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 6 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 8 MPH.
LVORI...............3.
DISPERSION INDEX....23 INCREASING TO 35 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON,
THEN INCREASING TO 50 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO 42 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........47 41 33 35 34 34 34 39
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0 5 10 20 30 30 30 30
TEMP............82 85 88 90 92 92 93 92
RH..............82 72 61 56 51 49 49 49
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 3 5 5 5 5 6
20 FT WIND GUST.6 6 7 9 9 9 10 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.5 3.5 4.2 4.9 5.6 5.3 5.0 4.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.W SW SW SW SW SW W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8
DISPERSION......19 27 35 45 54 51 46 42
LVORI...........4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (30-40 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.
CWR.................30 PERCENT DECREASING TO 10 PERCENT LATE IN THE
EVENING.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE
EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 3 TO 9 MPH.
LVORI...............6.
DISPERSION INDEX....32 DECREASING TO 3.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........28 21 23 24 20 20 18 23 29 42 42 48
WEATHER COV.....CHC SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC SCH
CWR.............30 20 10 20 20 20 20 10 10 0 0 0
TEMP............91 89 85 80 78 76 74 73 72 71 70 70
RH..............50 56 65 79 85 87 93 97 100 100 100 100
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..6 5 5 5 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
20 FT WIND GUST.13 10 10 9 7 6 3 3 3 3 3 3
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.4 2.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
TRANSP WIND DIR.W SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W W
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 3
DISPERSION......32 22 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2
LVORI...........1 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 9 10 10 10
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 95.
MIN HUMIDITY........47 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 3 TO 9
MPH.
LVORI...............6.
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 53.
TIME (EDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........52 66 61 38 54 52 54 57 58 54 47 43
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20
TEMP............70 69 72 74 81 85 87 89 91 92 92 93
RH..............100 100 100 100 82 72 65 57 52 49 48 47
20 FT WIND DIR..S SE N S S S S S SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 0 1 2 2 3 5 5 5 6 7
20 FT WIND GUST.3 3 2 3 6 6 7 9 9 10 13 14
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.7 0.9 1.6 2.4 3.1 3.8 4.4 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.W S S S S S S SW SW SW S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 3 3 3 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9
DISPERSION......2 2 4 7 14 18 26 30 40 47 50 55
LVORI...........10 10 9 7 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1
FORECASTER...DOBBS
REQUESTED BY...ADAM PETERSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2514689.0/TAE
.DELDT 05/26/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL APETERSON@TNC.ORG
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