917
FXUS63 KTOP 160441
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1041 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
AFTER MORNING FOG, A NICE DAY HAS DEVELOPED WITH SOUTHERLY WIND
AROUND 20 MPH AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THIS EVENING, A MODIFIED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. MOISTURE
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY WON'T COMBINE UNTIL
AFTER THE BOUNDARY HAS PASSED US, LEADING TO A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT WILL LIKELY DO LITTLE MORE THAN SHIFT THE WIND TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BRING SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. YET
ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. AGAIN, THE BULK OF
THE MOISTURE AND LIFT IS FAVORED TO BE OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS
FRONT MAY HAVE A STRONGER PUNCH OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE
FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREAL BEFORE SUNRISE,
SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. IF KTOP AND KMHK BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES, THERE COULD BE PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING.
HOWEVER, 915MB WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WNW AFTER 8Z
MON, SO THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT SHALLOW GROUND FOG
FROM DEVELOPING. IF IT DOES DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE THE GROUND FOG
WILL MIX OUT AFTER 13Z MON.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...GARGAN
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