802
FXUS63 KTOP 160753
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
153 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 35 MAY
EXPERIENCE PATCHY DENSE TO AREAS OF FOG THROUGH SUNRISE.
- FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 AM CST MON DEC 16 2024
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE MEAN
WESTERLIES GENERALLY POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHER TIER OF THE CONUS
INTO CANADA. AS A RESULT, WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE OBSERVED
THROUGH THE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A COLD FRONT WORKING
THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE IS GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH REMAINING DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S OVER EAST
CENTRAL AREAS POISED TO BE SHUNTED SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
WITH CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION INTO THE MORNING, NOT ANTICIPATING
THAT ANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL LOW-LYING AREAS WILL SEE MUCH
MORE BUT PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNRISE. MOST AREA
ROAD CAMS SHOW MAINLY GROUND FOG BUT A COUPLE AREAS COULD SEE
SLIGHTLY MORE DEPTH FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. HAVE GONE WITH MENTION OF
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.
A NICE WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON TAP FOR THE WEEK BEFORE CHRISTMAS WITH
MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY COOL/COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND POSSIBLY SOME 60S AGAIN. A MODIFIED COLD FRONT WORKS
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE REGION AND QUICKLY SLIDES EAST.
MEANWHILE, A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS HELPING TO KEEP MEAN
WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
COMPONENT SETTING UP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 50S AND NEAR 60 AGAIN
THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW
20S. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO WEAK TO CAUSE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CST SUN DEC 15 2024
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SURFACE
FRONT/WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREAL BEFORE SUNRISE,
SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. IF KTOP AND KMHK BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES, THERE COULD BE PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPING.
HOWEVER, 915MB WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE WNW AFTER 8Z
MON, SO THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT SHALLOW GROUND FOG
FROM DEVELOPING. IF IT DOES DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE THE GROUND FOG
WILL MIX OUT AFTER 13Z MON.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...GARGAN
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