288
FXUS63 KTOP 171114
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
514 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK LIKELY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- VARYING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH SEVERAL WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WORKING THROUGH THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE CYCLES
WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE AS THE MEAN
WESTERLIES GENERALLY REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS THE NORTHER TIER OF
THE CONUS INTO CANADA. A MODIFIED CP AIRMASS HAS OVERTAKEN THE
CENTRAL CONUS. MOISTURE OF ANY SIGNIFICANCE IS GENERALLY WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. VERY COLD AIR STRATUS IS IN PLACE OVER GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OFF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES JUST ENTERING WESTERN AREAS AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO STREAM INTO THE REGION TODAY. AS A RESULT, MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S SHOULD DO IT FOR THE FORECAST
AREA WITH PERHAPS A FEW LOW-LYING AREAS SLIGHTLY LOWER. WINDS ARE
CALM AND ANY FOG THAT MAY FORM BEFORE TOO MANY HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN
WOULD BE LIMITED TO GROUND FOG.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL VARY THROUGH THE WEEK DUE A COUPLE PRIMARY
COLD FRONTS ENTERING THE REGION, MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS STILL LOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THE WEEK OVERALL.
TODAY, HIGHS RANGE IN THE LOW TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 50S DUE TO A
SOUTHERLY BREEZE IN PLACE BUT CLOUDS OVERHEAD SHOULD MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO WARM TO THE UPPER 50S. A MODIFIED COLD FRONT WORKS
THROUGH TONIGHT BRIEFLY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS AND 20S FOR LOWS ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS INTO THE REGION AND QUICKLY SLIDES EAST. COLD
PASSAGE SHOULD REMAIN DRY ONCE AGAIN WITH ONLY A VERY SHALLOW
STRATUS LAYER PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE
WITH THE PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM.
A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE BUILDS INTO THURSDAY HELPING TO KEEP THE MEAN
WESTERLY FLOW NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW
COMPONENT SETTING UP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 50S AGAIN THURSDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S.
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CAUSE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE ONCE AGAIN AND THE BEST
DYNAMIC LIFT REMAINS POSITIONED NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO THE 40S AND NEAR 50 BY THE END OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE WESTERN RIDGE DE-AMPLIFIES AND WORKS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO HOLD FOR THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A POSSIBLE AREA OF LOW STRATUS WHICH MAY TRAIL BEHIND FROPA LATER
THIS EVENING. IF LOW STRATUS IS WIDESPREAD WITH THE INCOMING COLDER
AIR THEN EXPECT MARGINAL CIGS TO BE IN PLACE FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUING INTO MID MORNING
WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL ZONE AS WELL BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL AND LIKELY
SHORT-LIVED AND COULD BE OFFSET BY SOME SURFACE GUSTS AS WELL.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DRAKE
AVIATION...DRAKE/POAGE
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