137
FXUS63 KTOP 171827
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1227 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, WITH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY BEING THE COLDEST WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
AND LOWS IN THE TEENS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
DESPITE CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE QUICKLY
TODAY. THIS IS LIKELY IN LARGE PART DUE TO SOME SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND AND WARM-AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, WITH A BREEZY
AND COOL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FOLLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT. WHILE
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT SEEMS SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION, MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE LACKING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND ALL THE
WAY THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SOME SURFACE
POOLING OF MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. SOME
DRIZZLE/FLURRIES OR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MAY EVENTUALLY FORM ALONG
THE FRONT, BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT IS AFTER IT EXITS OUR
AREA. YET ANOTHER FRONT IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. AGAIN,
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT IS FAVORED TO BE OFF TO OUR
EAST. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY HAVE A STRONGER PUNCH OF COLD AIR
BEHIND. LOWS IN THE TEENS APPEAR LIKELY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MORNINGS. THIS COLD AIR WON'T STICK AROUND THOUGH. YET ANOTHER
WARMUP IS FAVORED FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE DRY AND MILD PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN IS
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST TUE DEC 17 2024
VFR AT ALL TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 04Z THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH AROUND 04Z THIS EVENING. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY
WIND WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL AS LOW STRATUS. MVFR
CIGS ARE FAVORED AFTER ABOUT 7Z UNTIL CLOSE TO THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WIND WILL DECREASE AND CIGS BEGIN TO SCATTER AND
LIFT TOWARD THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE PERIOD.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...JONES
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