625
FXUS63 KTOP 181108
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
508 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH FRIDAY BEING
THE COLDEST DAY AS HIGHS ONLY REACH INTO THE 30S.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
A SHORTWAVE IS TRANSLATING EAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT HAVING MADE
ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. NORTH WINDS ARE USHERING IN
COOLER AIR AND INCREASING LOW CLOUDS; CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY, BUT CAA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ON THURSDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AND ALLOW FOR A WARM-UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THIS WARM-
UP IS SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AFTERNOON ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO MID
30S. TEMPERATURES MODERATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE
ZONAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE A PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SHUNTS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE THAT EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS SEES SOME RAIN AS THE FRONT PASSES AND/OR AS THE
BOUNDARY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY COME IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME AS A STRONGER WAVE EJECTS ACROSS THE PLAINS, ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS WAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST WED DEC 18 2024
LOW-END MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AT TAF SITES THIS MORNING
BEFORE CIGS BEGIN TO LIFT LATER THIS MORNING AND SCATTER OUT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. TIMING OF RETURN TO VFR IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN, BUT THINK ALL SITES WILL BE VFR BY 18-21Z. NORTH
WINDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY AND BECOME SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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