965
FXUS63 KTOP 182319
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
519 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH FRIDAY
BEING THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.
- RISING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO ERODE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE SUN
BEFORE IT SETS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AND
BECOMES WESTERLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE QUICKLY
TOMORROW WITH MIXING WIND. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO EVEN LOW 60S SEEM
LIKELY, EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH IN THE MORNING, BUT THE MAIN PUSH OF COLDER AIR DOESN'T
ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THURSDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY PLUMMET. LOWS IN
THE TEENS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. THE CHILLY AIR WILL STICK AROUND
UNTIL SATURDAY. LATER SATURDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE
AGAIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. A RETURN TO THE 50S SEEMS LIKELY. THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE WEATHER PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS, BUT THE LOCATION OF THAT SYSTEM AND ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS AMBIGUOUS AT THIS TIME WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
DEEPER TROUGH OVER KANSAS, BRINING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE ECMWF HAVING MORE ZONAL FLOW, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST,
REMAINING LIGHT UNTIL 4-5 AM THURSDAY MORNING AS PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED DURING THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS REMAINING BREEZY AND SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
BOUNDARY. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD IS IF THE KTOP
AND KFOE TERMINALS WILL SEE SOME MVFR STRATUS REDEVELOP AND
IMPACT THE SITES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE STARTED TO HINT AT THIS, BUT HAVE JUST
ADDED A SCATTERED MENTION OF MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
MOISTURE SHOULD STAY EAST OF KMHK, SO ONLY ADDED MENTION TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY WESTWARD-SHIFT IN ANY STRATUS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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