879
FXUS63 KTOP 190359
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
959 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH FRIDAY
BEING THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.
- RISING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO ERODE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE THE SUN
BEFORE IT SETS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT AND
BECOMES WESTERLY BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RISE QUICKLY
TOMORROW WITH MIXING WIND. HIGHS IN THE 50S TO EVEN LOW 60S SEEM
LIKELY, EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH IN THE MORNING, BUT THE MAIN PUSH OF COLDER AIR DOESN'T
ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THURSDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY PLUMMET. LOWS IN
THE TEENS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. THE CHILLY AIR WILL STICK AROUND
UNTIL SATURDAY. LATER SATURDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ONCE
AGAIN. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVERHEAD FOR THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. A RETURN TO THE 50S SEEMS LIKELY. THERE IS A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE WEATHER PATTERN EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS, BUT THE LOCATION OF THAT SYSTEM AND ANY ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION IS AMBIGUOUS AT THIS TIME WITH THE GFS SHOWING A
DEEPER TROUGH OVER KANSAS, BRINING SOME PRECIPITATION INTO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE ECMWF HAVING MORE ZONAL FLOW, KEEPING
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
VFR TAFS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. THE
MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOW-LEVEL TURBULENT MIXING, MAINLY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. OPTED TO NOT MENTION LLWS IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 MPH AND WINDS INCREASE
UNIFORMALLY THROUGH 2000FT. GUIDANCE BACKED OFF ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATUS, BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CU
FORMING NEAR KTOP AND KFOE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BEYOND THAT,
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, TRANSITIONING
TO A WEST/NORTHWEST ORIENTATION BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR WILL COME NEAR THE END OF THE TAF KEEPING GUSTY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...JONES
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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