849
FXUS63 KTOP 190905
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
305 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS BREEZY WINDS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH
MUCH COLDER AIR BUILDING IN FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE 30S ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RISING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN CONTROL OF THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS. A SHORTWAVE DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH A SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, VEERING WINDS FROM
THE SOUTH TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. GOOD MIXING AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID 50S AND LOW 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR MOVES IN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH. THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GUSTS MAY REACH ADVISORY
LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN DEEP MIXING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WHILE ISOLATED GUSTS
OF 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE, CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH IN WIDESPREAD
WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A WIND ADVISORY. LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS WITH WIND CHILLS OF 0-10
DEGREES. WINDS RELAX THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH FREEZING WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S SUNDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHUNTS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE
VARIES IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND THE TRACK OF A SECONDARY
WAVE OF ENERGY THAT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
TUESDAY. EAST CENTRAL KANSAS HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE (15-30%) OF
SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON CHRISTMAS
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A STRONGER WAVE EJECTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY, BRINGING CHANCES
FOR RAIN TO THE AREA, ALTHOUGH VARIABILITY IN GUIDANCE REMAINS
HIGH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 959 PM CST WED DEC 18 2024
VFR TAFS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. THE
MAIN ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOW-LEVEL TURBULENT MIXING, MAINLY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY
MORNING. OPTED TO NOT MENTION LLWS IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10-15 MPH AND WINDS INCREASE
UNIFORMALLY THROUGH 2000FT. GUIDANCE BACKED OFF ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR STRATUS, BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CU
FORMING NEAR KTOP AND KFOE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BEYOND THAT,
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, TRANSITIONING
TO A WEST/NORTHWEST ORIENTATION BY THE EVENING. ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR WILL COME NEAR THE END OF THE TAF KEEPING GUSTY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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