164
FXUS63 KTOP 191959
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
159 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS PICK UP THIS EVENING WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR ARRIVING
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST ASIDE FROM A CHANCE OF RAIN (15-
40%) MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR EAST CENTRAL KS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CONSISTS OF NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. EASTERN KS FINDS ITSELF IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER IA, AND WINDS ARE
SLOWLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS A RESULT OF THAT SYSTEM
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT IS STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NE AND SD
AS OF 19Z. GUIDANCE HAS CAA STRENGTHENING INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z,
AT WHICH POINT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALSO START TO INCREASE WITH
QUICKER PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE AT
THEIR PEAK BETWEEN 00-06Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDING BY MID-DAY FRIDAY WITH THE SFC HIGH
OVERHEAD. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA
THIS EVENING WITH 40-45 KT GUSTS ALOFT, ALTHOUGH THE HRRR IS NOTABLY
THE MOST ROBUST IN BRINGING ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE
WHEREAS ALL OTHER MODELS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA. ADDITIONALLY,
THE HREF PROBABILITIES OF 45+ MPH GUSTS ARE GENERALLY 40% OR LESS
ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS FOR AN HOUR OR
SO. BASED ON THIS, IT WOULD SEEM REASONABLE TO EXPECT BRIEF WIND
GUSTS TO THIS MAGNITUDE AT SOME LOCATIONS, BUT STILL DID NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS FOR A LONG ENOUGH
DURATION TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
WINDS STILL LOOK GUSTY OVERNIGHT BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT BEFORE
DECREASING FRIDAY. THIS STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO THE TEENS BY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS, EVEN AROUND ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
TRANSITIONING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S SATURDAY
AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE 50S IN SOME PLACES BY SUNDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE FLATTENS SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRINGS ANOTHER ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS DOESN'T LOOK TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES,
BUT COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO EAST CENTRAL KS WHERE POPS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST AT 15-40% FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, DRY AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
THERE IS MORE VARIATION IN THE GUIDANCE IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY TIME FRAME, BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERHAPS BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE ARE PLENTY OF DIFFERING IDEAS ON THE
TIMING, STRENGTH, AND TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS
EVOLUTION REMAINS RATHER LOW. TEMPERATURES DO STILL LOOK WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST THU DEC 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WINDS ARE THE MAIN DRIVER IN THIS TAF
FORECAST. GUSTS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOW TO PICK UP FROM THE WSW SO
FAR TODAY, BUT THEY SHOULD BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD WHILE TURNING WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING, AT WHICH POINT GUSTS LOOK TO REACH THEIR
PEAK. SOME 30+ KT GUSTS MAY OCCUR (PERHAPS UP TO 40 KTS BRIEFLY
AND ON AN ISOLATED BASIS) BETWEEN 01-06Z BEFORE WINDS SLOWLY
RELAX THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...PICHA
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