497
FXUS63 KTOP 200420
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1020 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS PICK UP THIS EVENING WITH SHARPLY COLDER AIR ARRIVING
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
- MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST ASIDE FROM A CHANCE OF RAIN (15-
40%) MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR EAST CENTRAL KS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CONSISTS OF NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. EASTERN KS FINDS ITSELF IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER IA, AND WINDS ARE
SLOWLY TURNING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS A RESULT OF THAT SYSTEM
PROGRESSING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT IS STILL WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NE AND SD
AS OF 19Z. GUIDANCE HAS CAA STRENGTHENING INTO THE AREA AFTER 00Z,
AT WHICH POINT NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALSO START TO INCREASE WITH
QUICKER PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS LOOK TO BE AT
THEIR PEAK BETWEEN 00-06Z BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY SUBSIDING BY MID-DAY FRIDAY WITH THE SFC HIGH
OVERHEAD. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS AROUND ADVISORY CRITERIA
THIS EVENING WITH 40-45 KT GUSTS ALOFT, ALTHOUGH THE HRRR IS NOTABLY
THE MOST ROBUST IN BRINGING ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS TO THE SURFACE
WHEREAS ALL OTHER MODELS FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA. ADDITIONALLY,
THE HREF PROBABILITIES OF 45+ MPH GUSTS ARE GENERALLY 40% OR LESS
ACROSS THE AREA EXCEPT FOR A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS FOR AN HOUR OR
SO. BASED ON THIS, IT WOULD SEEM REASONABLE TO EXPECT BRIEF WIND
GUSTS TO THIS MAGNITUDE AT SOME LOCATIONS, BUT STILL DID NOT HAVE
THE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD ADVISORY-LEVEL WINDS FOR A LONG ENOUGH
DURATION TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
WINDS STILL LOOK GUSTY OVERNIGHT BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT BEFORE
DECREASING FRIDAY. THIS STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO THE TEENS BY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS, EVEN AROUND ZERO IN SOME LOCATIONS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK FOR THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
TRANSITIONING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL
HELP TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S SATURDAY
AND EVENTUALLY BACK TO THE 50S IN SOME PLACES BY SUNDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE FLATTENS SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRINGS ANOTHER ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS DOESN'T LOOK TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES,
BUT COULD BRING SOME RAIN TO EAST CENTRAL KS WHERE POPS ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST AT 15-40% FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, DRY AND MILD WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
THERE IS MORE VARIATION IN THE GUIDANCE IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
THURSDAY TIME FRAME, BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE REGION WITH PERHAPS BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE ARE PLENTY OF DIFFERING IDEAS ON THE
TIMING, STRENGTH, AND TRACK OF THAT SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE IN ITS
EVOLUTION REMAINS RATHER LOW. TEMPERATURES DO STILL LOOK WARM ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CST THU DEC 19 2024
STRATUS MOVING SOUTH FROM NEB MAY SKIRT THE TOP AND FOE
TERMINALS. OBS UPSTREAM SHOW THESE CLOUDS ABOVE 3KFT SO IT
SHOULDN'T BE MUCH OF AN IMPACT. CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH MID-DAY.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...PICHA
AVIATION...WOLTERS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page