259
FXUS63 KTOP 201111
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
511 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER TODAY WITH RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- 15-35% CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- LOOKING DRY AND MILD FOR CHRISTMAS DAY WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN
INCREASING ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE BEHIND LAST EVENING'S COLD FRONT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S WITH ELEVATED
WINDS CREATING WIND CHILLS FROM NEAR ZERO INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
WINDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY, BUT MODEST CAA WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE
OF WARMING, EVEN WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE FREEZING MARK THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCALES ON
SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHUNTS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORCING IS
FOCUSED NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THIS PERTURBATION, SO A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS FAVORED. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST EJECTS
FURTHER SOUTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A
CHANCE (15-35%) OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON CHRISTMAS
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. A STRONGER WAVE EJECTS ACROSS
THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY. DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE REMAIN, BUT ENSEMBLES ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS LEADS TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN LIGHT RAIN IMPACTING THE AREA ON THURSDAY, BUT
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN. NONETHELESS, TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. NORTH WINDS WEAKEN AND GRADUALLY VEER
THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...FLANAGAN
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