640
FXUS63 KTOP 202300
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
500 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN STAYING MILD
THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK.
- LOW (20%) CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
A MUCH COLDER AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BARELY CLIMBED TO
30 SO FAR, BUT AT LEAST WINDS HAVE WEAKENED AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
BEGINS TO MOVE OVERHEAD. EXPECTING ANOTHER COLD NIGHT TONIGHT AS
WINDS STAY LIGHT AND HIGH CLOUDS MOSTLY CLEAR OUT BY EARLY MORNING.
THE COLD SNAP DOESN'T LAST LONG THOUGH. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST OF US TOMORROW, MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO NEAR AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST DAY OF ASTRONOMICAL WINTER.
THE WARMUP WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST AS WE APPROACH CHRISTMAS. A
LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LOW IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL DIRECT REPEATED ROUNDS OF MOISTURE
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA, ALLOWING STRONG
RIDGING TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND FLOODING ALMOST ALL OF
NORTH AMERICA WITH MILD AIR. OUTSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH
OVER NEW ENGLAND, THE 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM WILL BE WELL NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY CHRISTMAS DAY. AT THE SURFACE HERE IN
NORTHEAST KANSAS, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGHS REACH THE LOW 50S BY SUNDAY AND STAY NEAR OR ABOVE 50
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF CHRISTMAS WEEK. EVEN LOOKING BEYOND THE 7
DAY FORECAST PERIOD, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE SUPPORT FOR A
RETURN OF SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES UNTIL AROUND THE NEW YEAR.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES, A FEW SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME VARIABILITY IN HOW THESE SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE OVER TIME, BUT
OVERALL SOME LOW POPS MAKE SENSE - ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD WARMTH. ANY RAIN SHOULD TEND TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE,
WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT LARGELY STAYING TO OUR
SOUTH. ASSUMING OUR AREA STAYS IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY, SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE LEAD WAVE WOULD KEEP US DRY FOR
THE DAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
TAFS WILL REMAIN UNVER VFR STATUS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
SITES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...REESE
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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