650
FXUS63 KTOP 210831
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
231 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING UP THIS WEEKEND, THEN STAYING MILD THROUGH CHRISTMAS WEEK.
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE (15-35% CHANCE) ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY (20-30% CHANCE) FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING FEATURES AN EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH AND RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN US, LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
OF THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AGAIN THIS
MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK WAA UNDER SUNNY SKIES WILL BUMP
TEMPERATURES UP 5-10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S, AROUND CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
ASTRONOMICAL WINTER.
FURTHER WARMING IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
AND AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 50S
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A PERTURBATION MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SHUNTS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. FORCING IS MAXIMIZED NORTH OF THE AREA AND A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED. A COUPLE MORE PIECES OF ENERGY EJECT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAIN, BUT HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WITH
THESE WAVES WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH EAST
CENTRAL KANSAS HAS A 15-35% CHANCE OF SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE DAYTIME HOURS ON CHRISTMAS WILL BE DRY, ALBEIT
CLOUDY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. A CLOSED LOW
IS PROGGED TO EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
ALTHOUGH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DIFFER AMONG
GUIDANCE. NONETHELESS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AS THE LOW
EJECTS ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH WARM TEMPERATURES LEADING TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ALL RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1015 PM CST FRI DEC 20 2024
MINIMAL CHANGES TO TAFS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...FLANAGAN
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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