505
FXUS63 KTOP 220406
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1006 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE (15-35% CHANCE) ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY (20-30% CHANCE) FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
AT MID AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES
WHILE AN UPSTREAM TROUGH WAS LOCATED OFF OF THE WASHINGTON AND
OREGON COAST. WINDS HAVE COME BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON THE
BACKSIDE OF A SURFACE HIGH THAT EXTENDED FROM WISCONSIN TO THE GULF
COAST AT 19Z. WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER (MID 20S) THAN
THIS MORNING.
THE WAA PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WISCONSIN BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MONDAY MORNING. THE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF
NORTHEAST KANSAS, SO A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES ONLY COOL SLIGHTLY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S EXPECTED.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS EVE.
MOISTURE MAY REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF RAIN, REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO LOOK CLOUDY AND DRY WITH A MID LEVEL
RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AND
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE NEXT TROUGH TO MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS. ENSEMBLES ALSO SUGGEST A LOW PROBABILITY
FORECAST ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY, BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 15% AT BEST AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
MINIMAL CHANGES TO AVIATION FORECAST AS VFR TAFS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, GUSTING UPWARDS OF 25-30 MPH AT TIMES
BEFORE FALLING BELOW 20 MPH AFTER SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING.
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...GRIESEMER
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