957
FXUS63 KTOP 160431
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1031 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY (UP TO 60%) ALONG THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE
BY MONDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO THE NORTH AND
AROUND AN INCH OR TWO.
- MORE IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A 60% TO 80% CHANCE FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS POSTED FOR
AREAS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE THAN 5 INCHES.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK
AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS GOOD. WIND CHILL VALUES COULD
BE AS COLD AS 30 BELOW ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A SHORTWAVE LIFTING OVER THE TX
AND OK PANHANDLES WITHIN A SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH INTO CENTRAL CANADA. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS NOTED
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE
WEST COAST. SURFACE OBS SHOWED A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEAST KS WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR
SOME VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS AS
THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS EAST. RECENT RAP AND NAM PROGS SHOW ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE BELOW 800MB, SO THE LIFT DEVELOPING THE BAND OF PRECIP IN
SOUTH CENTRAL KS NOW IS LIKELY FROM THE SHORTWAVE AND DEEP ENOUGH TO
HAVE ICE IN THE CLOUD. THIS WOULD FAVOR SNOW OVER DRIZZLE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. AND SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MINOR WITH MOST
GUIDANCE ONLY SHOWING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH QPF.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE WINTER WEATHER FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS
WITH PRECIP CHANCES AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE WILL GET
SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY
FOR SNOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN KS MONDAY MORNING AS SOME MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS A BROAD BAND OF SNOW. THIS COULD PRODUCE
AN INCH OR TWO ALONG THE NEB STATE LINE, BUT THE FRONTOGENESIS
DOESN'T EXTEND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN THAT. SO MOST AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW. PROBABILITIES FOR 2 INCHES OR
MORE ARE ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36.
THE MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. AGAIN THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BROAD SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR PRECIP. ALTHOUGH IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE
A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM, ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A SUDO WARM MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT FEEDING INTO SOUTHERN KS ON TUESDAY WITH ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS, SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 15:1 AND 20:1 AND IT WOULDN'T TAKE A LOT
OF QPF FOR SNOW TO BEGIN TO ADD UP. THE FOCUS OF THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION HAD SHIFTED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS OVER CENTRAL KS TO
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KS WITH THE 12Z RUNS. THIS IS THE SOURCE
OF THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. WHERE DOES THE CONVEYOR BELT SET UP AND
HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS ABLE TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE COLD AIR. AM A
LITTLE LEERY OF SOME OF THE QPF AMOUNTS SHOWN BY THE NBM AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH OVER A HALF INCH OF QPF ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS.
THIS PRODUCES SOME HEFTY SNOW AMOUNTS OVER EAST CENTRAL KS. BUT AT
THE SAME TIME THE PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 6 OR 8 INCHES HAVE
COME DOWN IN THE NBM WHICH IS CURIOUS. THE CONSISTENCY IN THE
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS AND THE NBM SHOWING A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR EXCEEDING 6 INCHES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS HAVE LED TO GOING WITH
A WINTER STORM WATCH. WILL HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE HIGHER QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS. THE 90TH PERCENTILE, OR WORSE CASE
SCENARIO, SHOWS THAT AROUND 10 INCHES IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
LATER SHIFTS CAN REEVALUATE IF THE WATCH SHOULD BE EXPANDED BEYOND
THE INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE OTHER MAIN IMPACT IS GOING TO BE THE BRUTALLY COLD TEMPERATURES
THAT COME IN FOR NEXT WEEK. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A 1045MB HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS LITTLE SPREAD OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES BETWEEN THE
25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE. SO CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMP FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT WEEK IS GOOD. THE NBM MEAN SHOULD BE A GOOD FORECAST FOR TEMPS
AND WE WILL PROBABLY NEED SOME COLD WEATHER HEADLINES EVENTUALLY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
START TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TOMORROW MORNING. ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER COULD MOVE IN BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
NORTHERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND BEGIN TO SUBSIDE
BY TOMORROW MORNING.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 247 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -9 (1978) 0
CONCORDIA -10 (1978) -3
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -11 (1978) -7
CONCORDIA -3 (1978) -7
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -13 (1889) -13
CONCORDIA -5 (1918) -12
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -2 (1939) -8
CONCORDIA -3 (1918) -3
RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 13 (1936) 6
CONCORDIA 11 (1929) 1
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 14 (1929) 3
CONCORDIA 16 (1929, 1959) 6
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 10 (1918) 10
CONCORDIA 8 (1918) 10
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ035-KSZ037-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...JONES
CLIMATE...REESE/WOLTERS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page