873
FXUS63 KTOP 161650
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1050 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW IS LIKELY (UP TO 60%) ALONG THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE EARLY
MONDAY. AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO THE NORTH AND AROUND AN
INCH OR TWO.
- MORE IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS A 70% TO 90% CHANCE FOR
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS POSTED FOR
AREAS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE THAN 5 INCHES.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK
AND CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HIGH. WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD BE AS COLD AS 30 BELOW ZERO. AN EXTREME COLD WEATHER
WATCH IS POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WAS MOVING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH A RIDGE WAS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. ANOTHER
UPSTREAM TROUGH WAS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS DOWN INTO TEXAS AT 08Z.
FOR TODAY, CLOUDS CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING SUNSHINE BACK FOR
A DAY. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO WARM BACK UP INTO
THE TEENS AND 20S.
FOR TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY, PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID LEVELS WILL
MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. DECENT FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DEVELOPS
LATER TONIGHT FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI. AREAS FROM MARSHALL COUNTY EASTWARD ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FORCING.
POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES LOOKS ON TRACK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST COME MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW
IS FORECAST AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH. GOOD DEEP LEVEL SATURATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE COLUMN THROUGH THE EVENT. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN
THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE IS PROLONGED AND WILL LEAD TO
POSSIBLY SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70 HAS INCREASED TO 70-90% AND
LOWER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF I-70. HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER
STORM WATCH ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES NORTHWARD ALONG THE I-70
CORRIDOR. OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS FROM EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MID DAY. DURING THIS TIME PERIOD OF EXTREME
COLD WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 29 DEGREE BELOW ZERO RANGE
AT NIGHT. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW ZERO EACH
MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM EARLY
MORNING TUESDAY TO MID DAY THURSDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY EVENING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO AROUND FREEZING ON
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
MODELS KEEP THE MAIN FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. AND OBJECTIVE
MOS GUIDANCE HAS CHANCES FOR SNOW AROUND 30 PERCENT. SO WILL
INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW THINKING CHANCES ARE BETTER THE
SNOW STAYS JUST NORTH. UNLESS THE BAND OF SNOW ENDS UP FURTHER
SOUTH, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH MID CLOUDS
INCREASING OVERNIGHT.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 247 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -9 (1978) 0
CONCORDIA -10 (1978) -3
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -11 (1978) -7
CONCORDIA -3 (1978) -7
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -13 (1889) -13
CONCORDIA -5 (1918) -12
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -2 (1939) -8
CONCORDIA -3 (1918) -3
RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 13 (1936) 6
CONCORDIA 11 (1929) 1
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 14 (1929) 3
CONCORDIA 16 (1929, 1959) 6
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 10 (1918) 10
CONCORDIA 8 (1918) 10
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...WOLTERS
CLIMATE...REESE/WOLTERS
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