042
FXUS63 KTOP 162025
AFDTOP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
225 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE NEBRASKA STATE LINE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR SNOW PACKED
ROADS ALONG HIGHWAY 36.
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW (80% TO
90%) BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY. HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE I-70.
- TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME HAZARDOUS TUESDAY WITH
SLICK ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY FROM BLOWING SNOW. CONSIDER
ALTERING TRAVEL PLANS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO, ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
FROSTBITE CAN DEVELOP IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MIN IN THESE
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
CANADA. A SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS LOW OVER
ALBERTA. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE OBS SHOWED THE COLDFRONT FROM
YESTERDAY HAD PUSHED SOUTH OF THE TX AND LA GULF COASTS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS.
IN GENERAL THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST. A
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NEB TONIGHT
AND MOVE INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN KS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE
HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS(SLR), THIS BAND COULD PRODUCE 1 TO 3
INCHES OF SNOW BY NOON. SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY
FOR BROWN, NEMAHA AND MARSHALL COUNTIES. MODELS KEEP THE BETTER
FORCING FOR SNOW NEAR THE STATE LINE SO WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS I-70, AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN AN INCH.
FOR THE SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW BROAD SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION AIDED BY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. THE LACK OF A FULL BLOWN CYCLONE
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR US. BUT THERE
REMAINS INDICATIONS OF A MOIST CONVEYOR BELT FEEDING MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHERN KS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH GENERALLY MODEST FORCING
AND THE VERY COLD AIRMASS WITH SLR NEAR 20:1, THE FORECAST HINGES
MAINLY ON QPF. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED SOUTH WITH THE HEAVIER
QPF WHICH MAKES SOME SENSE. FROM ISENTROPIC PROGS, THE MOIST
CONVEYOR BELT LOOKS TO FOCUS LIFT AND MOISTURE MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
KS WHILE AT THE SURFACE A NORTHEAST WIND CONTINUES TO ADVECT DRY AIR
SOUTH. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH WPC, WE ADJUSTED THE QPF OVER
NORTHERN KS CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AND SHOW A TIGHTER GRADIENT
IN THE QPF OVER EAST CENTRAL KS. THIS WOULD KEEP THE HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-70. HOWEVER EVERYONE WILL GET A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW AND IMPACTS FROM THIS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT
FROM THE HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS. I HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HAVE
UPGRADED THE FIVE EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES TO A WARNING. BUT AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH EAX AND ICT, WE WANTED TO SEE ONE MORE MODEL RUN
BEFORE GOING WITH A WARNING. SO THE FORECAST HAS 2 TO 4 INCHES
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS. THIS WOULD BE IN ADDITION TO
THE 1 TO 3 INCHES NORTHEAST KS COULD PICK UP MONDAY MORNING. 3 TO 6
INCHES IS FORECAST ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH 5 TO 8 INCHES
FORECAST OVER EAST CENTRAL KS. THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH SEEMS
TO COVER THIS PRETTY WELL AND HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE
ORIENTATION OF THE WATCH.
CONFIDENCE IN THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK REMAINS GOOD. THERE IS CONSENSUS IN AN ARCTIC HIGH MOVING INTO
EASTERN KS BY THURSDAY. AND THE ENSEMBLES SHOW SMALL SPREAD IN THE
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THINK THE COLD
WEATHER WATCH IS APPROPRIATE FOR THE DURATION OF THE VERY COLD
WEATHER. TALKED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES AND THE CONSENSUS WAS TO
KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR NOW. BUT GIVEN THE CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES, A COLD WEATHER WARNING MAY BE THE BETTER WAY TO
MESSAGE THE PROLONGED ARCTIC AIR EVEN IF WE STRICTLY ARE NOT
MEETING WARNING CRITERIA.
THE FORCING FOR LIFT EXITS EAST OF THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
INTO MO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN A
SOMEWHAT NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF
WEAK WAVES WITHIN THE PATTERN MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BUT
THERE SHOULDN'T BE MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE ADVECTION FOR THE WAVES TO
ACT UPON. THE NBM INSERTED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PREDICTABILITY OF THESE LOW AMPLITUDE WAVES IS
PRETTY LOW AND CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY IS
ALSO LOW. OTHERWISE WE SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND SET UP BY THE
WEEKEND. THE LATEST ECMWF RUN SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S
BY SUNDAY. LETS HOPE THE ECMWF IS RIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
MODELS KEEP THE MAIN FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. AND OBJECTIVE
MOS GUIDANCE HAS CHANCES FOR SNOW AROUND 30 PERCENT. SO WILL
INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW THINKING CHANCES ARE BETTER THE
SNOW STAYS JUST NORTH. UNLESS THE BAND OF SNOW ENDS UP FURTHER
SOUTH, VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH MID CLOUDS
INCREASING OVERNIGHT.
CLIMATE
UPDATED AT 247 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -9 (1978) 1
CONCORDIA -10 (1978) -4
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -11 (1978) -5
CONCORDIA -3 (1978) -5
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -13 (1889) -11
CONCORDIA -5 (1918) -9
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA -2 (1939) -4
CONCORDIA -3 (1918) -1
RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 13 (1936) 6
CONCORDIA 11 (1929) 1
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 14 (1929) 8
CONCORDIA 16 (1929, 1959) 5
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST
TOPEKA 10 (1918) 11
CONCORDIA 8 (1918) 8
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-
KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.
DISCUSSION...WOLTERS
AVIATION...WOLTERS
CLIMATE...REESE/WOLTERS
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