783  
FXUS63 KTOP 171744  
AFDTOP  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS  
1144 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW (80% TO 90%)  
BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. HIGHER  
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.  
 
- TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME HAZARDOUS TUESDAY WITH  
SLICK ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY FROM BLOWING SNOW. CONSIDER  
ALTERING TRAVEL PLANS FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY  
NIGHT.  
 
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND  
LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO, ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  
FROSTBITE CAN DEVELOP IN AS LITTLE AS 30 MIN IN THESE  
CONDITIONS.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025  
 
EARLY THIS MORNING AT 08Z, LIGHT SNOW WAS OCCURRING ACROSS NORTHERN  
KANSAS ALIGNING WITH 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS AND AHEAD OF A 700 MB  
PERTURBATION. EXPECT THIS LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD  
AND CONTINUE TO SATURATE THE COLUMN WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS  
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER AS SEEN IN  
THE CAMS AS WELL AS THE HREF. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE  
PRECIPITATION FOR ABOUT 8 TO 12 HOURS BEFORE SNOW REDEVELOPS THIS  
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH NOON  
FROM MARYSVILLE TO HIAWATHA.  
 
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW IS  
FORECAST AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MOVE THROUGH THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING  
MID LEVEL TROUGH. GOOD DEEP LEVEL SATURATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
COLUMN THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WITHIN THE  
DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME WILL LEAD  
TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERAL INCHES OF  
SNOW HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF  
INTERSTATE 70. BOTH THE HREF SNOWFALL MEAN AS WELL AS THE ECMWF AND  
MODEL PLUMES SUPPORT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS. SMALL  
CHANGES IN QPF WILL LEAD TO MORE OR LESS SNOW AS THE SNOW RATIOS  
WILL BE INITIALLY 15 TO 17 TO 1 AND THEN 18 TO 20 TO 1 BY LATE  
TUESDAY. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST  
AREA EXCEPT FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG THE NEBRASKA BORDER WHERE A  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.  
 
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN KANSAS FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY.  
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD OF EXTREME COLD WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO  
THE WILL AVERAGE FROM 15 TO 25 BELOW TUESDAY MORNING, 20 TO 25 BELOW  
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AROUND 20 TO 30 BELOW THURSDAY MORNING.  
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO  
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW ZERO EACH MORNING.  
THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM EARLY MORNING  
TUESDAY TO MID DAY THURSDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA DUE TO PROLONGED  
NATURE OF THE COLD AND FOR LITTLE RELIEF DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.  
 
A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE ARE SOME  
DIFFERENCES WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF  
A MID LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS  
ON SATURDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE TO ADD ANY PRECIPITATION AT  
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO AROUND OR ABOVE  
FREEZING ON SATURDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER  
40S FOR SUNDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025  
 
BROKEN STRATUS CEILINGS OF 1500-2000 WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS  
THE TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME WINDOWS OF VFR  
CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE  
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL DROP  
DOWN TO 3 MILES. THE SNOW TEMPO WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH  
THE MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME PERIOD OF  
MODERATE SNOW 12Z-18Z WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2-1SM. DURING  
TIMES OF MODERATE SNOW, CEILINGS MAY DROP BELOW 1000 FEET.  
 
 
   
CLIMATE  
 
UPDATED AT 247 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2025  
 
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES  
 
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18  
 
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST  
TOPEKA -9 (1978) 1  
CONCORDIA -10 (1978) -4  
 
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19  
 
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST  
TOPEKA -11 (1978) -5  
CONCORDIA -3 (1978) -5  
 
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20  
 
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST  
TOPEKA -13 (1889) -11  
CONCORDIA -5 (1918) -9  
 
FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 21  
 
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST  
TOPEKA -2 (1939) -4  
CONCORDIA -3 (1918) -1  
 
RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES  
 
TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 18  
 
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST  
TOPEKA 13 (1936) 6  
CONCORDIA 11 (1929) 1  
 
WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 19  
 
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST  
TOPEKA 14 (1929) 8  
CONCORDIA 16 (1929, 1959) 5  
 
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20  
 
RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST  
TOPEKA 10 (1918) 11  
CONCORDIA 8 (1918) 8  
 
 
   
TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST  
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012.  
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST  
THURSDAY FOR KSZ008-KSZ009-KSZ010-KSZ011-KSZ012-KSZ020-KSZ021-  
KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-  
KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.  
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT CST  
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ022-KSZ023-KSZ024-KSZ026-  
KSZ034-KSZ035-KSZ036-KSZ037-KSZ038-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-  
KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...53  
AVIATION...GARGAN  
CLIMATE...REESE/WOLTERS  
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